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Why did the stock market rise to record highs during the Covid-19 pandemic? Is it a bubble?

The timing of stock market gyrations are often hard to explain, and although the stock market crash at the beginning of the Covid pandemic is easy to understand, the dramatic rise later in the pandemic is harder to understand. Why

Posted in Macro

I sold my stocks. I’m an economist who usually doesn’t believe in market timing, but the market looks irrationally exuberant right now.

First let’s look at the economic fundamentals right now: GDP has crashed by more than it has since the Great Depression due to a pandemic with no end in sight. Unemployment is higher than it has ever been since the

Posted in Macro

Bush and his team were SOOO much better than Trump and his team.

Once again I find myself longing for the good old days of the George W. Bush administration which was so much more honest and competent.  And they weren’t racist nor corrupt. Here is Bush’s chief economic advisor on what should

Posted in Health, Macro

This month may be the best time in history to look for a job!

One of the oddities of the macroeconomy is the fact that GDP falls wildly every year in the beginning of winter. That means that there is a kind of recession every winter. It isn’t an official recession because everyone expects

Posted in Labor, Macro

Is the Fed finally thinking about Americans at the median income and below?

Most people think that the president has a lot of power over the economy, but that isn’t true. Presidents have very little direct power over the economy by law. The Fed is the only part of government that has the

Posted in Macro

Homeownership rates and severity of financial crisis

The St. Louis Fed produced the above graph showing that nations with higher homeownership rates were hit harder by the 2007 financial crisis and are still dealing with greater aftereffects today. Nations with the most rental properties like Switzerland and

Posted in Macro, Real Estate

88 years of unemployment data

Unfortunately FRED has four different somewhat-overlapping data series that must be combined to get the full, long-run picture of the unemployment rate from 1929 to the present. The first data series in light green is undoubtably the least accurate of

Posted in Labor, Macro

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