#Pence2018: Because Donald Trump is toxically unpopular already, and more bad stuff is on the horizon.

The Center for Politics and Ipsos surveyed Americans and asked them to rate all the presidents who have served since the 1950s. They confirm all the other polls showing that Trump is historically unpopular, particularly given that he has only just left what is usually the “honeymoon period”. Unfortunately, they didn’t ask about favorability of Pence which would have made the survey much more useful. Nobody has a choice about bringing back any of these presidents but the Republican Party has set investigations in motion that will force them to decide if we should get Pence (or even Ryan) as president instead of Trump. That choice is why they instigated the Muller investigation, Senate investigation, and the House investigation into unavoidable evidence of Trump’s corruption. The results below help show how much Trump is weighing down the Republican Party by making it toxic for most Americans.

Obama, Reagan, and Kennedy received the most support from respondents when asked which recent president they wish was serving in the White House right now.

The online poll sampled 1,004 adults on Feb. 7-8, 2018. …On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being terrible and 10 being excellent, Kennedy had the highest average rating, 6.56, of any post-World War II president (going back to Dwight Eisenhower).

Trump earned the third-lowest overall mark among respondents, 4.20, and his 3.77 average among independents was the second worst, just above Nixon’s 3.70. Compounding Trump’s weak performance among independents was his exceptionally low rating among Democrats, 2.14, the worst mark for any president among any partisan cohort. For comparison, Republicans gave Obama an average rating of 3.47.

That Democrats give the lowest ratings to Trump — lower even than Nixon — is remarkable, but so is the high evaluation of Trump among Republicans. This may be further evidence that the Trump brand and the Republican Party are increasingly synonymous… Republicans, meanwhile, still strongly preferred Reagan (44%) to the current Republican president, Trump (24%).

Trump’s unpopularity is why Democrats are forecast to retake the House of Representatives and why they are fundraising more than Republicans. As Matthew Yglesias explains:

According to an extremely useful comprehensive spreadsheet compiled by Daily Kos, across 70 special elections in 2017, Democrats ran 10 points ahead of Clinton and 7 points ahead of Obama’s 2012 results. Those numbers have accelerated into 2018. Across 12 races, Democrats are running 23 points ahead of Clinton and 8 points ahead of Obama. Historically speaking, special election results usually are somewhat predictive of midterm general election outcomes

It is probably too late for the Republican Party to turn around their brand before the midterm elections, but the longer they wait, the harder it will be.

Posted in Pence2018

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