I Think Therefore I Become

Many economists are very generous people, but part of the mutilitarian moral philosophy of the discipline is to normalize or even laud homo economicus.  Homo economicus is the model citizen of economics: a greedy sociopath who only cares about maximizing his own mutility.  This is how economic models generally assume that people behave because it is simpler to model than more complex, realistic human characters.  But because we constantly think it, therefore we have become comfortable with it as a norm.

For example, today at a free seminar I am attending, the presenter said that we are free to use all of the work he has posted on his website.  “I’m an idiot,” he said, “It’s free.”  And he repeated that assertion the second day too.  But he isn’t an idiot for giving his work away for free.  All academics give away most of their creative work for free, but only economists denigrate themselves for doing public service for free.

In contrast, he also said, “You’re going to love this,”  and he went on to tell how an economist from the University of Texas gets 7 cents from each copy of Excel sold because of writing a “simple algorithm” in it called Solver.  But only an economist would love the guy who got rich off of every person who has bought Microsoft Office or Excel (most of whom have never even installed the optional Solver module) and call generosity idiotic.

Posted in Medianism

Elites Worship Efficiency and Hate Social Security

Yglesias theorizes that the obsession about government deficits among elite Americans is motivated more by a hate of our big entitlement programs, Social Security and Medicare, than by anything else.  That is why elites have not changed their focus on deficits despite the rapid evaporation of the deficits.  As he says:

What [elites] care about is reducing the federal government’s fiscal commitment to bolstering the living standards of elderly people. The Powers That Be hate Social Security and always will because it’s a program whose entire purpose is to pay people money not to work. That’s not a perverse consequence of Social Security. …That’s the point. It’s to give people money so they can retire with dignity. “Retire” being a fancy word for “not working.” You’re never ever going to persuade business leaders to stop agitating for cuts in a program that has this feature. Business leaders want people to work! At a minimum, if people are hoping to not work, business leaders are going to want people to save (i.e., loan funds to business leaders) in order to achieve that purpose. Taxing people who are working in order to pay money so that people can enjoy retired life in peace is the antithesis of everything business elites want out of public policy. …We’ve done things to reduce budget deficits, …but we haven’t really acted to make it tougher for people to retire. But [elites] don’t like to say they want to make it hard for people to retire so instead they talk about “the deficit,”

Social Security and Medicare are about the least efficient programs possible.  It would be much more efficient for people to just die when they stop working rather than retire.  That would be a tremendous boost for GDP/capita and economic efficiency. I sometimes ask my economics students if more retirement would be a good or bad for America and many of them think that more retirement is bad for us because they have internalized mutilitarian ethics of economics.

Words like “efficiency” sound good to young college students, and retirement is far from their immediate concerns.  So, to get past the mental walls of jaded youth, I go on to say that it would be even more efficient to eat people when they can no longer work which was the secret of the movie Soylent Green.  In a futuristic totalitarian society, unproductive people were ground up into high-protein food called ‘soylent green’ that was extremely popular because quality food was scarce due to overpopulation.  That is the logic of mutilitarian economics which worships The Economy using GDP. I often joke about this in class.

Retired people only dilute GDP per capita.  Economics could be more ethical if we measured The Economy using median consumption.  That would include old people too and more old people would boost the statistic.  It is possible that too much retirement could start dragging down median consumption, and then we could start thinking about how desirable that tradeoff is, but it is always much less of a tradeoff than there is between retirement and mutilitarianism.   Of course, the elites care more about growing GDP because they control an extra-large portion of GDP.  The rest of us should be more concerned about the average American.  That is the median.  And the median American really, really wants to look forward to a nice, long retirement.

Posted in Medianism

Bernanke Bashes Meritocracy

The economics blogosphere recently lit up with responses to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s commencement address at Princeton.  Bernanke noted the fallacy that a meritocracy always has merit and/or is fair.  Meritocracy means rule by the people with the greatest ability (merit).  This idea was revolutionary in 17th-century Europe because it contradicted the longstanding ancient regime doctrine that God intended for power to be transmitted through family lineages rather than by ability.  It is certainly fairer that power go to whoever has great ability and puts in great effort.  But Bernanke points out that a meritocracy is not much fairer than a hereditary aristocracy because in both systems, it is the luck of what family you are born into that determines if you will rule.

meritocracies may be fairer and more efficient than some alternatives. But fair in an absolute sense? Think about it. A meritocracy is a system in which the people who are the luckiest in their health and genetic endowment; luckiest in terms of family support, encouragement, and, probably, income; luckiest in their educational and career opportunities; and luckiest in so many other ways difficult to enumerate–these are the folks who reap the largest rewards.

Bernanke goes on to argue that a meritocracy can only be a good system if the leaders act with a noblesse oblige to help the less fortunate.

The only way for even a putative meritocracy to hope to pass ethical muster, to be considered fair, is if those who are the luckiest in all of those respects also have the greatest responsibility to work hard, to contribute to the betterment of the world, and to share their luck with others. As the Gospel of Luke says (and I am sure my rabbi will forgive me for quoting the New Testament in a good cause): “From everyone to whom much has been given, much will be required; and from the one to whom much has been entrusted, even more will be demanded.”

British sociologist Michael Young who coined the word ‘meritocracy’ seemed to agree recently.  He went so far as to suggest that the word be eliminated because Young now thinks meritocracy has little merit because it isn’t really fair even if it is efficient.   A true meritocracy would be great for mutilitarians who worship efficiency, but Bernanke pointed out that it does not serve the rest of society well unless the goal of the elite leaders is not to keep as many of the goods for themselves, but to serve the rest of society.

But how would you measure if a meritocracy is serving the rest of society?  The simplest statistic is to track median consumption.  Bernanke’s goal is laudable, but it remains vague and nebulous without a way to measure progress towards it and medianism gives a way forward.

Posted in Medianism

Decline of Labor = Rise of Machines?

Labor’s declining share of the national income is related to the declining median income because most people make almost all of their income from working (labor) whereas only the very wealthy make most of their income from owning capital.  When the share of income going to labor declines because the share going to the owners of capital rises, that is naturally going to reduce the median income (and potentially hurt about 90% of Americans).

Labor’s share of income has been declining since the 1970s which is also the time period that inequality has been rising, but we don’t know why labor has been in decline.  Most economists have been focusing on technological change–machines substituting for labor.  This means robots and machines working instead of people.  Since only a few rich people can own the wages of all the machines (like slave owners of the past), inequality rises.  But a recent result by Tali Kristal in one of the top journals in Sociology suggests that it is not due to technology.  It is the decline in unionization.  A summary:

It was highly unionized industries — construction, manufacturing, and transportation — that saw a large decline in labor’s share of income,” Kristal said. “By contrast, in the lightly unionized industries of trade, finance, and services, workers’ share stayed relatively constant or even increased. So, what we have is a large decrease in labor’s share of income and a significant increase in capitalists’ share in industries where unionization declined, and hardly any change in industries where unions never had much of a presence. This suggests that waning unionization, which led to the erosion of rank-and file workers’ bargaining power, was the main force behind the decline in labor’s share of national income.

So Kristal’s work suggests that it is not a rise of machines, but a decline in unionization that accounts for the decline of labor’s share of income.  Several commentators have suggested that the logical next step in this research is to look at other nations where unionization has not declined to see if they have had similar trends.  This is important work in deciphering the cause of the rise in inequality since the 1970s.  Some economists say that it is ‘poisonous‘ to think about inequality, and others have tried to deny that it is happening, but it is an important and neglected research topic and Kristal’s work is an important contribution that deserves folowup.

Posted in Medianism

Class and Military Service

Today, my 14-year old played in the band for a Bluffton Memorial Day service and there was broad community attendance despite rainy weather and a last-minute change in venue.  Bluffton Ohio has strong civic engagement and this is easier in small towns but I imagine that many communities also get widespread community support of Memorial Day events to honor military service.  It was more about honoring the military than remembering the dead and seemed a bit redundant with veterans day.  Originally Memorial Day was about remembering soldiers killed in the Civil war, and later expanded to other wars, but other veterans’ deaths were remembered and I’m not sure if any soldier named in the ceremony had actually died in combat.

I expect that these kinds of events will decline as the current generation dies out because there has been a generational shift since the Vietnam war in attitudes towards military service.  Before Vietnam, military service was required of all young males in wartime due to the draft.  Of course, the draft existed during Vietnam too, but it has already begun to break down during that war.  Upper-class youth could more easily get deferments by going to college and because the baby boom produced lots of eligible soldiers, only about a quarter of Vietnam combat troops were draftees (compared to 66% during World War II).  And there were about three times as many Americans below the median income in combat in Vietnam as above the median.  Americans with connections and ambition like Dick Cheney, Mitt Romney, Joe Biden, and Bill Clinton got multiple draft deferrals and others like George W Bush were assigned to cushy National Guard placements with no danger of any combat.

According to AWOL: The Unexcused Absence of America’s Upper Classes from Military Service, the military was once a popular destination for elite families.  The draft was initiated in WWI because political leaders were worried that too many of the nation’s elites would volunteer to enlist.  “In 1956, 400 out of 750 in Princeton’s graduating class went into the military. In contrast, in 2004, 9 members of Princeton’s graduating class entered the services.”

In Bluffton, I was struck by how many community leaders had been in the military before Vietnam and how few veterans who were younger than Vietnam were community leaders involved in the Memorial Day service.  As the military becomes more and more of an institution for people below the median income, it will have fewer community leaders and there will be less organizational power to produce Memorial Day services.  There were younger community leaders there, but they were involved in the Boy Scouts or with the school.

Socioeconomic class is important.  One of the reasons that fads come and go is that upper-class people adopt new fashions to signal how cool they are.  But any fashion that can be copied by lower-class people will get less fashionable over time as the upper-class move to a new signal of their coolness to distinguish themselves from the common classes.  Freakonomics says this is the reason that baby names get fashionable.  Bertha was once a cool name for upper class babies, but it is easily copyable by lower classes and as it becomes more ‘common’ the elites move on to names that are more purely elite until Bertha becomes a purely lower-class name.  Eventually even the poor abandon it and copy names that have a more elite sound.

Similar fads determine military service.  Some societies have made military service a prerequisite for elite status.  The American South was once such a society.  But then the military was integrated and the white elites could not claim it as part of their privilege. And then the cold-war created a large standing army for the first time in American history.  It is expensive to keep a large army of elites and many were forced to work on foreign bases away from domestic elite social circles.  That further eroded the cachet of the military.   Then, we had an unpopular war that many elites considered misguided.   And finally, the end of the draft meant that fewer elites were forced to serve.  American elites decided that bribing people to enlist is more mutilitarian-efficient and drafting elites was no longer needed.  As a result, the military will be seen more and more as a kind of welfare-to work training program for lower-income families and immigrants.

The military is less of a cross-section of American society than it was during Korea and as military veterans get less representative of the nation, the gap between the military and the rest of society will widen.  If the trend continues, there won’t be as much interest in Memorial Day after the older, more elite generation of veterans passes away.  It will lose its historic significance and perhaps society will create new legends to base our future holiday traditions upon.  Easter got the bunny, Christmas got Santa, and Halloween became about cartoon-monsters and candy.  What will the new Memorial Day tradition be?  I predict it will be something to do with fire and ice.  The holiday is already morphing into an annual barbeque cook-off with ample chilled drinks.

Posted in Medianism

Eliminate “The Middle Class”

The concept of “the middle class” has never been well defined and has outlived its usefulness.  Because we have more precise statistical terms like ‘median,’ we should use them.  Wikipedia’s academic sources demonstrate that “the middle class” is often defined as starting above the median income.  Historically, the term has often been used to describe the bourgeoisie whose income begins well above the median and rises to the fringes of the lower aristocracy.  An Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll found that 54% of Americans define the middle class as, “having the ability to keep up with expenses and hold a steady job while not falling behind or taking on too much debt”.  By that definition, many famous movie stars have not made it into the middle class.

We medianists should eliminate “the middle class” because it is a deceptive term that breeds confusion.  The best term is the middle tertile (or tercile). This is a strangely neglected term that means the middle third of the distribution.  Its cousins, the quartilequintile, decile, and percentile are well known, but somehow the word ‘tercile, is rarely used.  This gives an easy, precise definition.  The Economist magazine wrongly claims that it is possible to have an absolute definition of middle class that uses the same material standards across time and place.  A ‘middle’ is never absolute.  A middle is always relative to something you are comparing it with.  The middle class of the US in 2015 is going to be very different from the middle class of Mozambique to say nothing of the middle class in the middle ages.

According to the Economist, a relative definition is relative to a small group of people like a nation.  But their “absolute definition” is also relative; it is relative to the entire population of the world.  The “¡¿absolute definition” that The Economist prefers is actually just relative to a large group of people.  As the global income distribution changes, the Economist magazine will certainly change its “¡¿absolute” definition of the middle class.   Regardless of what comparison group we use to define a middle class, the middle tercile gives more empirical meaning than a completely arbitrary monetary threshold.  Lets call it the midtercile class.

Most intellectuals, pundits and journalists may find the tercile definition of middle-class disturbing because it will place them in the envied and despised upper class.  But they really are elites.  Less than a third of American adults have a college degree, and having a college degree gives a high probability of being in the upper tercile.  Almost all our opinion setters are successful intellectuals, pundits, journalists, and politicians who are in the upper class even though they are loathe to admit it.  Only 2% of Americans feel like they can stand to identify with the upper class, but most opinion-setters really are elites.  A person like this should not try to charade as a midtercile (average) Joe.

One reason why most of the toptercile feel like they are part of the bottom 98% of Americans rather than part of the toptercile is that the top 2% richest Americans are SOOOOO much richer than even the rest of us.  What we really need is broader divisions within the toptercile.  We should divide the upper class into the rich (top 2%) and the bourgeois upper class which is really approximately what the term ‘bourgeois’ originally meant.  Unfortunately, the opinion setters themselves will be the ones to spread the name for themselves, and bourgeois is unflattering, so we need a term that they can take pride in if they are to adopt it.

The high-skilled class is a term which might work. This is a class that is either well-educated or has tremendous on-the-job training, but does not consider itself rich. It will be hard to convince them that they are not middle class, but they aren’t and they should accept it.  Perhaps they will be able to claim the title of “high-skilled class”.  Oddly, the elite opinion setters have divided the middle class into an upper-middle of which they are a part and a lower-middle which extends down somewhere towards the median.  Instead of dividing up the middle class into upper and lower when both classes are relatively similar and the upper middle class is really in the toptercile, we should divide up the toptercile.  It won’t be as easy to swallow as expanding the middle all the way to the top, Orwellian fashion.  But it is more accurate.  The “¡¿upper-middle” class is almost always part of the toptercile and should admit it.

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What Is Middle Class?

Politicians like to talk about “the middle class.” For example, Obama said that his reelection was “a mandate to help middle-class families and families that are working hard to try to get into the middle class.” But the ‘middle-class’ is poorly defined.  The term originated in 1745 when a new bourgeoise class was rising in England between the aristocratic landowning nobility and the impoverished peasants. The term probably applied to less than 15% of the population at the time.  Although the bourgeoisie class has expanded since then, “the middle class” is still usually defined by academics as considerably more elite than the median income.  Wikipedia attributes its modern usage to statistician T.H.C. Stevenson who said that the middle class was people with with significant human capital including professionals, managers, and senior civil servants and that is still how professionals and academics use the term.  It is themselves.  But much of the working class also thinks that it is middle-class too.  A 2012 Gallup poll found that 55% of Americans said that they are part of the middle or upper-middle class.  Only 2% of Americans said that they are above the middle class!  So when Americans talk about the ‘middle’ class, they are really talking about an elite class that begins somewhere at or above the median and extends up to the the very most elite classes.

No doubt there are deep-seated psychological motivations why people think of the middle class as being richer than the median, but one reason academics and journalists see themselves as at the middle is that we are used to hearing about average income rather than median income. Medianism could help raise a truer sense of class consciousness and help academics and journalists realize how privileged they are compared to the middle.  And if the ‘middle class’ realized that it is actually elite compared with the median, perhaps more members of the upper class would admit their level of privilege to themselves too.  It wouldn’t take much.  If only 4% of Americans realized that they were above the middle class, that would be a doubling of the upper class!

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