Slavery was a core part of civilization for most of history

Updated Aug/13/2024

What is the liberal arts? The word arts means ‘subjects of study’ and today the word liberal in this context is usually taken to mean “wide-ranging” and “broad-minded”, but that wasn’t the original meaning of the term.  The liberal arts is an concept that can be traced back to ancient Rome and Greece.  Although academics have a reputation for being politically liberal, they are actually extremely conservative about conserving academic traditions and the liberal arts is one of our most conservative academic traditions, but the way that we define ‘liberal’ has changed from the original meaning which is fortunate because the original meaning reflected some of the intrinsic ugliness about ancient societies.  The phrase originally meant the kind of study (or “arts”) that free men need as opposed to unfree men.  The word “liberal” came from the Latin word for freedom and a the concept of the liberal arts has roots going back to Ancient Greece where slaves greatly outnumbered citizens.  Aristotle defended slavery partly because their work liberated slaveholders to be able to pursue the elite arts, like philosophy and science, that were said to be “worthy of a free man”.  Greeks like Aristotle focused on ‘man’ because he considered all women to also be a kind of ‘natural slave.’  Many ancient Greeks justified slavery by claiming that slaves were incapable of making their own decisions. 

Although the meaning of, ‘the liberal arts’, has changed, the original meaning illustrates how pervasive slavery used to be.  It was endemic in all early civilizations and many foraging societies.  James C. Scott’s book, Against The Grain, argues that slavery was worse in large empires than in small-scale societies. One study found that only 24% of hunter-gatherer societies had hereditary slavery which is far less than in the agricultural societies that replaced them.  Scott quotes V. Gordon Childe’s book, Man Makes Himself which claimed that early civilizations saw domesticated animals as being just like slaves. 

“men as well as animals can be domesticated. Instead of killing a defeated enemy, he might be enslaved; in return for his life he might be made to work. This discovery has been compared in importance to that of the taming of animals… By early historic times slavery was a foundation of ancient industry and a potent instrument in the accumulation of capital.”

In modern civilizations, the state takes resources by taxing a share of the money that flows through the economy. In early civilizations, there was relatively little money and a lot smaller proportion of production was traded in markets.  Plus, most people barely eked out survival above subsistence.  The poverty and scarcity of monetary transactions made taxation difficult. Scott argues that grain production enabled the rise of taxation and therefore the rise of states because it was a standardized unit of production that was relatively easy to measure and confiscate. In essence, grain often served as a kind of money for the purposes of measuring the value of production that states could tax and more taxation means bigger states which causes an increase in hierarchy which increases both the means and the motives for slavery. 

[A] peasantry… will not automatically produce a surplus that elites might appropriate, but must be compelled to produce it. Under the demographic conditions of early state formation, when the means of traditional production were still plentiful and not monopolized, only through one form or another of unfree, coerced labor—corvée labor, forced delivery of grain or other products, debt bondage, serfdom, communal bondage and tribute, and various forms of slavery—was a surplus brought into being.

Each of the earliest states deployed its own unique mix of coerced labor, as we shall see, but it required a delicate balance between maximizing the state surplus on the one hand and the risk of provoking the mass flight of subjects on the other, especially where there was an open frontier.

Only much later, when the world was, as it were, fully occupied and the means of production privately owned or controlled by state elites, could the control of the means of production (land) alone suffice, without institutions of bondage, to call forth a surplus. So long as there are other subsistence options, as Ester Boserup noted in her classic work, “it is impossible to prevent the members of the lower class from finding other means of subsistence unless they are made personally unfree. When population becomes so dense that land can be controlled it becomes unnecessary to keep the lower classes in bondage; it is sufficient to deprive the working class of the right to be independent cultivators”—foragers, hunter-gatherers, swiddeners, pastoralists.

It was difficult to prevent slaves from escaping and returning to their home communities when they came from nearby. Male slaves were often chained or imprisoned in a work site at a mine or on a galley of a ship. Slaves were separated from their relatives and mixed with unrelated individuals often from other tribes that had no history of trusting one another. Differences in racial appearance could help the dominant race identify slaves and work together to dominate them such as in the American South, and there is some evidence that race played a role in the enslavement of hunter-gatherers by the first agricultural populations of Europe.  But in most of the ancient world there was usually little difference in physical appearance between slaves and owners and so race has rarely been a part of slavery. But tribalism and accent were often used as identifying factors at least for first-generation slaves until speech patterns assimilated in subsequent generations.  Seafaring powers like Athens and Rome typically brought slaves from multiple places across the Mediterranean which made escape back to home virtually impossible.

For slave raids closer to home it was common practice that:

The towns and villages of the defeated peoples were generally destroyed so that there was nothing to go back to. In theory, the plunder belonged to the ruler, but in practice the loot was divided up, with the generals and individual soldiers taking their own livestock and prisoners to keep, ransom, or sell.

For similar reasons, it was hard for European colonists to enslave Native Americans in North America.  They had an easy time slipping away back to native populations (plus, they were susceptible to numerous Old World diseases and kept dying off).  Native Americans were the first slaves but African slaves had a much harder time escaping and finding refuge in native communities and they were already resistant to disease so African slavery displaced Native American slavery in the South although there were still some Native American slaves into the 1800s.  The Spaniards had an easier time taking over the slave traditions of the Aztec and Incan empires where conscripted labor was already a well-established institution of empire.  Egypt had an easier time preventing runaways because it was surrounded by desert.

Scott says that early warfare was more often about capturing slaves than capturing territory. One obvious advantage of capturing slaves was that territory is harder to control than just some of the people of a territory and slaves were easier to transport than physical goods and furthermore, captured slaves were used as beasts of burden to carry goods too.

Warfare in [Mesopotamia] beginning in [3,500] and for the next two millennia was likewise not about the conquest of territory but rather about the assembling of populations…

Oddly, I was never taught in world history class about just how central slavery was to civilizations across the world. For example, many ancient thinkers that we respect, like Aristotle and the Apostle Paul, thought that slavery was natural and necessary, perhaps because it was common everywhere they looked. Because slavery is mentioned throughout the Bible, slaveholders used the Bible to justify slavery for centuries. Although the Catholic Church was generally very progressive about eliminating the slavery of Christian Europeans in the Middle Ages in favor of serfdom (which was a more benign form of slavery), Pope Nicholas V authorized the consignment of pagans to “perpetual servitude” in the Dum Diversas papal bull.  Although the church deserves enormous credit for fighting to reduce pagan slavery and Christian serfdom in Europe, European Christians revived slavery in their colonies.  Many parts of the Church owned slaves in colonial outposts. 

Scott continues:

Slavery was not invented by the state. Various forms of enslavement, individual and communal, were widely practiced among nonstate peoples… [But it] would be almost impossible to exaggerate the centrality of bondage, in one form or another, in the development of the state until very recently. As Adam Hochschild observed, as late as 1800 roughly three-quarters of the world’s population could be said to be living in bondage. In Southeast Asia all early states were slave states and slaving states; the most valuable cargo of Malay traders in insular Southeast Asia were, until the late nineteenth century, slaves…

How could Hochschild estimate that 3/4 of the world’s population was living in bondage?  He may be overestimating, but he is also using a very broad definition of slavery:  people who are forced to work and cannot leave.  Americans tend to define slavery narrowly as the kind of chattel capitalist slavery that was practiced in America, but that was an unusual form of slavery in the scope of world history.  Scholars of slavery typically define it more broadly to include all forms of involuntary servitude including corvée labor (seasonal slavery), serfdom (peasants who were unfree to leave the unpaid service of their lords),  indentured servitude (contractual slavery which expires after a predetermined number of years), and debt peonage (forcing debtors into bondage). 

American slavery was unusually harsh in that:

  • It was supercharged by capitalism’s financial system which encouraged market trading and speculation.  Capitalism created competitive international slaving companies and increased buying and selling that often split apart slave families. 
  • It was race-based.  Most slave societies were more equal-opportunity because it was too expensive to travel large distances to get slaves and most slaves were taken from local populations.  For example, early in US colonial history, the majority of white immigrants were indentured servants and many free blacks owned slaves. Sometimes whites were even enslaved by African-Americans.  Slavery only slowly became exclusively associated with race, partly due to new pseudo-scientific theories as explained in The Myth of Race by Robert Sussman.  By the time of the Civil War, slavery had become more infused with racism than it had been in the beginning.  
  • Children inherited slave status from their mother even if their father was her white owner.  Of course, arguably the situation was worse in some Malthusian societies where slaves were so disposable that they were not allowed to divert their energies away from profitable work towards raising children. 
  • Manumission (granting freedom) was rare.  Like many aspects of American slavery, this gradually got harsher as Southern slaveowners reacted to threats of slave rebellion and criticism from abolitionists.  In the early days of US slavery, manumission was relatively common, and some former slaves even became slaveowners themselves.  But by the eve of the Civil War, it had been greatly restricted or prohibited by slave states. 

Slavery has taken many different forms in different societies, but using a broad definition, it was nearly ubiquitous across agricultural societies until modern times.  Most of the early Islamic nations which conquered territory from Spain to India were reliant upon slave armies made up of children who were stolen from their parents.  In many examples enslaved soldiers achieved tremendous political status in Islamic nations even though they were formally considered slaves.  Slave soldiers even took over Islamic empires including Egypt, Iraq, northern India, Syria, Iran, and often established their own ruling dynasties.  

Scott again:

Moses Finley famously asked, “Was Greek Civilization based on Slave Labour?” and answered with a resounding and well-documented yes. Slaves represented a clear majority—perhaps as much as two-thirds—of Athenian society, and the institution was taken completely for granted; the issue of abolition never arose. As Aristotle held, some peoples, owing to a lack of rational faculties, are, by nature, slaves and are best used, as draft animals are, as tools. In Sparta, slaves represented an even larger portion of the population. The difference… was that while most slaves in Athens were war captives from non-Greek-speaking peoples, Sparta’s slaves were largely “helots,” indigenous cultivators conquered in place by Sparta and made to work and produce communally for “free” Spartans…

Imperial Rome… turned much of the Mediterranean basin into a massive slave emporium. Every Roman military campaign was shadowed by slave merchants and ordinary soldiers who expected to become rich by selling or ransoming the captives they had taken personally. By one estimate, the Gallic Wars yielded nearly a million new slaves, while, in Augustinian… Italy, slaves represented from one-quarter to one-third of the population. The ubiquity of slaves as a commodity was reflected in the fact that in the classical world a “standardized” slave became a unit of measurement [of value].

Thus slaves were so common in the Roman marketplace that they served as a form of money for wealthy Romans. Slaves were a common measure of status and wealth.

…If the elite households of Greece or Rome are any indication, a large part of their claim to distinction was the impressive array of [slaves who worked as] servants, cooks, artisans, dancers, musicians, and courtesans on display.

We have very little information about what percent of the population of ancient Mesopotamia was enslaved because slaves were considered more akin to domesticated animals than people.  Officials made no effort to record a census of domesticated animals and the same goes for slaves. Scott says slaves were, “wholly equivalent to domestic animals in status.” Surviving written documentation of Mesopotamian slave populations is scarce after thousands of years, but one of the few records that exists is for the city of Uruk

Slavery [in ancient Mesopotamia] …was crucial for three reasons: it provided the labor for the most important export trade good, textiles; it supplied a disposable proletariat for the most onerous work (for example, canal digging, wall building); and it was both a token of and a reward for elite status…

The most unambiguous category of slaves was the captured prisoner of war. Given the constant need for labor, most wars were wars of capture, in which success was measured by the number and quality of captives—men, women, and children—taken…

[In Uruk there were] state-supervised workshops producing textiles that engaged as many as nine thousand women. They are described as slaves in most sources but also may have included debtors, the indigent, foundlings, and widows—perhaps like the workhouses of Victorian England. Several historians of the period claim that both women and juveniles taken as prisoners of war, complemented by the wives and children of debtors, formed the core of the textile workforce. Analysts of this large textile “industry” stress how critical it was to the position of elites, who were dependent for their power on a steady flow of metals (copper in particular) and other raw materials from outside the resource-poor alluvium. This state enterprise provided the key trade good that could be exchanged for these necessities. The workshops represented a sequestered “gulag” of captive labor that supported a new strata of religious, civil, and military elites. Nor was it insignificant demographically. Various estimates put the Uruk population at around forty thousand to forty-five thousand in the year 3,000 BCE. Nine thousand textile workers alone would represent at least 20 percent of Uruk’s inhabitants, not counting the other prisoners of war and slaves in other sectors of the economy…

slaves and prisoners of war… were not well treated. Many are shown in neck fetters or being physically subdued. “On cylinder seals we meet frequent variants of a scene in which the ruler supervises his men as they beat shackled prisoners with clubs.”21 There are many reports of captives being deliberately blinded, but it is impossible to know how common the practice was. Perhaps the strongest evidence of brutal treatment is the general conclusion by scholars that the servile population did. not reproduce itself. In lists of prisoners, it is striking how many are listed as dead—whether from the forced march back or from overwork and malnutrition is not clear. Why valuable manpower would be so carelessly destroyed is, I believe, less likely to be owing to a cultural contempt for war captives than to the fact that new prisoners of war were plentiful and relatively easy to acquire…

Plus, brutality was a way to motivate slave labor and a tool of control to prevent slave rebellion.

[In China, both the Qin dynasty and the Han dynasty had] markets for slaves in the same way as it had markets for horses and cattle. In areas outside dynastic control, bandits seized whomever they could and sold them at slave markets or ransomed them. The capital of both dynasties was filled with war captives seized by the state, by generals, and by individual soldiers. As with most early warfare, military campaigns were mixed with “privateering,” in which the most valuable loot comprised the number of captives who could be sold. It seems that much of the cultivation under the Qin was carried out by captive slaves, debt slaves, and “criminals” condemned to penal servitude…

slavery, [usually] in the form of war captives… had several advantages over other forms of surplus appropriations. The most obvious advantage is that the conquerors take for the most part captives of working age, raised at the expense of another society, and get to exploit their most productive years. In a good many cases the conquerors went out of their way to seize captives with particular skills that might be useful—boat builders, weavers, metal workers, armorers, gold- and silversmiths, not to mention artists, dancers, and musicians…

Women [of reproductive age] and children were particularly prized as slaves. Women were often taken into local households as wives, concubines, or servants, and children were likely to be quickly assimilated, though at an inferior status. Within a generation or two they and their progeny were likely to have been incorporated into the local society—perhaps with a new layer of recently captured slaves beneath them in the social order. If manpower-hungry polities like, say, Native American societies or Malay society historically are any indication, it is common to find pervasive slavery together with rapid cultural assimilation and social mobility. It was not uncommon, for example, for a male captive of the Malays to take a local wife and, in time, organize slave-taking expeditions of his own. Providing that slaves were constantly being acquired, such societies would remain slave societies, but, viewed over several generations, earlier captives would have become nearly indistinguishable from their captors. Women captives were at least as important for their reproductive services as for their labor. Given the problems of infant and maternal mortality in the early state and the need of both the patriarchal family and the state for agrarian labor, women captives were a demographic dividend. Their reproduction may have played a major role in alleviating the otherwise [high mortality rate of Malthusian societies]…

As earlier captives and their progeny were incorporated into the society, the lower ranks were constantly replenished by new captives, further solidifying the line between “free” subjects and those in bondage, despite its permeability over time.

One reason for the fluid nature of class structure in which slaves could become free was the common interbreeding between elite men and their female slaves.  Polygamy was the norm and when elite men took a particular fancy to a slave woman and wanted exclusive sexual access, she could be elevated to the status of concubine or wife.  The increased status meant much better living conditions, but wives were just another form of property, so arguably all wives were just a type of slave that could not be bought and sold. Plus, elite property owners were always wanting more laborers and slaves died off at a fast rate in given that average life expectancy for most of history was in the low 30s, so forced pregnancy helped to replace laborers who died off from malnutrition, sickness, and abuse.

I cannot resist the obvious parallel with the domestication of livestock, which requires taking control over their reproduction. The domesticated flock of sheep has many ewes and few rams, as that maximizes its reproductive potential. In the same sense, women slaves of reproductive age were prized in large part as breeders…

As for male slaves, they were often separated from the women and children and sent to do other work:

in the Greco-Roman territories they were deployed as a kind of disposable proletariat in the most brutal and dangerous work: silver and copper mining, stone quarrying, timber felling, and pulling oars in galleys. The numbers involved were enormous, but because they worked at the sites of the resources, they were a far less visible presence—and far less a threat to public order—than if they had been near the court center. It would be no exaggeration at all to think of such work as an early gulag, featuring gang labor and high rates of mortality. Two aspects of this sector of slave labor deserve emphasis. First, mining, quarrying, and felling timber were absolutely central to the military and monumental needs of the state elites…

There is a good chance that any time you see a monumental work of architecture or from the ancient world that it was mostly constructed with slave labor.  Remember that the next time you see the Acropolis of Athens, pyramids of Giza, the Great Wall of China, Roman ruins, Venetian palaces, or any other tourist attraction that was built before the 19th century.  Nearly all the wonders of the ancient world were built with slave labor. 

The luxury of having a disposable and replaceable [workforce] is that it spared one’s own subjects from the most degrading drudgery and thus forestalled the insurrectionary pressures that such labor well might provoke, while satisfying important military and monumental ambitions. In addition to quarrying, mining, and logging, which only desperate or highly paid men will undertake voluntarily, we might include carting, shepherding, brick making, canal digging and dredging, potting, charcoal making, and pulling oars on boats or ships.

Thus, a slave population also secured the ruling elites in their power by simultaneously elevating a class of supporters who owned the slaves and although they might have to pay taxes or tribute to the elites at the top of the hierarchy, at least they were spared the drudgery of producing the tax by having their own slaves.

Max Weber’s concept of “booty capitalism” seems applicable… “Booty capitalism” simply means, in the case of war, a military campaign the purpose of which is profit. In one form, a group of warlords might hatch a plan to invade another small realm, with both eyes fixed on the loot in, say, gold, silver, livestock, and prisoners to be seized. It was a “joint-stock company,” the business of which was plunder. Depending on the soldiers, horses, and arms that each of the conspirators contributes to the enterprise, the prospective proceeds might be divided proportionally to each participant’s investment. The enterprise is, of course, fraught, in as much as the plotters (unless they are merely financial backers) potentially risk their lives… In many cases—in early Southeast Asia and in imperial Rome—war was seen as a route to wealth and comfort. Everyone from the commanders down to the individual soldier expected to be rewarded with his share of the plunder.

In my American history classes, slavery was treated as a peculiarly American phenomenon, but as Thomas SowellStanley L. Engerman and many other scholars have pointed out, slavery was practiced on every inhabited continent throughout history.  In fact, most people accepted slavery as natural or inevitable until a couple centuries ago when global culture finally took a decisive turn away from the institution.  Slavery took many different forms in different societies. The North Atlantic slave markets were unusual in that capitalism was just taking off for the first time which created new kinds of slavery businesses and the racist chattel slavery that arose was harsher than many other forms.

But many slave societies were even more brutal in other ways.  Roman slaves were routinely forced to kill each other for the entertainment of their masters in gladiator contests and Aztec slaves were routinely killed in ritual human sacrifice.  There is a lot of competition for the harshest slave society in history.  

Chattel slavery is defined as slavery that involves the buying and selling of slaves.  Chattel slavery is often condemned as being harsher than slavery without slave markets, but anything that can be bought and sold is much more valuable to its owner than something that cannot be sold.  Because slaves were so extremely valuable in chattel slavery, that increased the incentive to care for their physical welfare as long as they were able to work.  (Retirement was rarely something that any slave could hope for.) 

For example, Jeremy Black argues that the non-chattel slavery used by the USSR and Communist Cambodia was worse in some ways there than under chattel slavery.  The communists made widespread use of state-sponsored slavery through their gulag “work camps” where prisoners were forced to work without pay, and many without hope of manumission.  Because the prisoners could not be sold, they were less valuable than chattel slaves and they were more likely to be mistreated to death.  Similarly, after slavery was banned in the US, the Jim Crow South re-enslaved a remarkable percentage of their Black community by imprisoning them, often on false pretenses, and using prisoners for forced labor. Although these prisoners were not called slaves, their average treatment may have been worse than the average treatment of chattel slaves.  

Today slavery is illegal everywhere for the first time in human history

Luke Muehlhauser writes that the abolition of slavery is a surprisingly modern phenomenon:

Iceland was the first state to abolish slavery, in 1117. But progress on abolition continued to be extremely slow until about 1775, during the industrial revolution. Then, the number of states abolishing slavery rose quickly up to 1981, when Mauritania became the last country on Earth to abolish slavery…

The global antislavery movement more-or-less began with the British abolitionists, circa 1800-1840… Britain was thereafter the primary global exporter of antislavery, sailing around the world and pressuring countries all across Africa and Asia to abolish the slave trade and slavery in general. Most slavery abolition around the world seems not to have been “home-grown” (as in Britain and the USA), but in fact was exported by Britain and (later) some other European states to their colonies and the rest of the world.

The last countries to abolish slavery were Saudi Arabia and North Yemen in 1962, Trucial Arabia in 1964, South Yemen in 1967, Oman in 1970,  and Mauritania in 1981.  This graph by Stephen Pinker shows when it happened:

slavery

There have always been some individuals who have had moral qualms about slavery, but it was considered good or at least normal by the most powerful people in nearly every country in the world until a couple centuries ago. 

Although slavery is officially condemned today, it still lives on because many communities still accept it and bans are not always enforced.  For example, although Mauritania was the last country to officially ban slavery in 1981, they didn’t enforce the law and slavery lived on.  Maruritania took another step in 2007 when they also criminalized slavery in order to enforce the ban.  Several nations have also taken the additional step to criminalize slavery since then including the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic in 2010, and Chad in 2017. 

According to the National Geographic, illegal slavery is still rampant in the 21st Century.

There are an estimated 27 million men, women, and children in the world who are enslaved — physically confined or restrained and forced to work, or controlled through violence, or in some way treated as property.

Therefore, there are more slaves today than were seized from Africa in four centuries of the trans-Atlantic slave trade [which comprised 11 million total slaves, and about 450,000 (or 4%) of those slaves were brought to the United States]. The modern commerce in humans rivals illegal drug trafficking in its global reach—and in the destruction of lives.

This map shows where slavery is the most prevalent in the 21st century:

Modern_incidence_of_slavery

In theory slavery should be more profitable today than ever before because wages are MUCH higher than the cost of subsistence whereas for most of history it cost about the same amount to pay for a subsistence wage laborer as to feed a slave (unless the slave was being worked to death which was also common).  In some impoverished societies, there was little danger that slaves would run away because in many cases, they would starve to death.  The fact that market wages in the slave states of the US were among the highest in the world was one of the economic incentives that made slavery so valuable.  The fact that wages are so much higher today than in Malthusian times helps explain why slavery still exists despite universal approbation.  Slavery saves a lot of money relative to paying a wage. 

Why did slavery finally get banned everywhere in the world?

Mr. Black argues that capitalism ultimately led to a dramatic reduction in slavery, but this is misleading because capitalism enthusiastically exploited slavery and made it more entrepreneurial, monetized, and globalized.  Before capitalism, slavery was usually more about one’s place in a social hierarchy.  In tribal-based societies, someone who didn’t have strong connections to a family might need to be a slave just to survive, but slaves could eventually rise in status (like in the Biblical story of Jacob) by proving loyalty and worth to the family.  A slave’s status often functioned on a continuum with higher roles in a family hierarchy.  Some male slaves achieved higher status than “free” women in some societies where wives and daughters also had low status.  In some societies, high-status slaves could themselves own other slaves! 

So if capitalism did not lead to the global abolition movement, what did?  Ultimately it was the increase in bargaining power of workers to demand greater wages and rights.  The same factors that eliminated slavery also caused rising wages and working conditions for ordinary people.  What increased the bargaining power of workers? 

1. Physical capital accumulation.

Mr. Black gets partial credit for naming capitalism because capitalism did help produce capital accumulation, but capitalism also produced the vast international slave trade and massive monocultures of chattel slavery in the production of American cotton, sugar in the Caribbean and Brazil, dates and pearls in the Persian Gulf, and many other examples.

To understand how capital led to the abolition of slavery, we have to define capital in a specific way.  The broadest definition of capital is simply wealth and slaves were the dominant form of wealth in wealthy slave societies, so the accumulation of wealth alone did not cause the abolition movement.  For example, slaves accounted for almost 1/3 of the total wealth of the United States at the time of the American Revolutionary War and approaching half of total wealth in the slave states.

united_states_with_slavery-0

The definition of capital I’m using here is “PHYSICAL capital” (as opposed to human capital or financial capital or natural capital, etc.).  Physical capital is something that is produced at a sacrifice that makes you more productive.  In other words it is our tools, machinery, and infrastructure.   Physical capital is valuable in proportion to the difficulty of producing it and it is always easier to destroy it than to create it (due to the 2nd law of thermodynamics).

That ease of destruction gives workers more bargaining power.  A new bulldozer that costs $200,000 can easily be sabotaged by disgruntled workers with a little sugar in the gas tank or a little sand in the gearbox or a little nick on a radiator hose which can result in tens of thousands of dollars in repair costs and it will be very hard to figure out who caused the problem.  Valuable physical capital gives workers more leverage because owners really don’t want disgruntled workers with nothing to lose.

2. Complex work

The more complex an economic system is, the more decisions each worker must make.  Decisions require autonomy which is the opposite of slavery.  Plus, psychologists have known since 1908 that too much extrinsic pressure leads to worse decisions because people clutch.  The only kind of work that responds well to extrinsic pressure is routine work like digging ditches.  When even rudimentary cognitive skill or creativity is required, extrinsic pressure tends to lead to worse performance

A counterexample to this theory is the fact that slaves ascended to powerful management positions in the Roman bureaucracy, so it is possible for slaves to do complicated work, but I suspect that the elite slaves in those positions had much cushier lives that most ‘free’ Roman citizens, so it was their high status and compensation that motivated them (just like ordinary wage labor) as much as the fact that their owners could put them to death if they made too many mistakes.  

3. Interdependent work with potential to sabotage a production process

When a cotton-picking slave does poor work, it has little effect on the productivity of anyone else.  But when one assembly-line worker does poor work, it reduces the productivity of all the other workers on the same line by the same amount.  For example, the speed of an entire assembly-line is determined by the slowest worker and if anyone slows down, that slows everyone down.  Similarly, if just one person makes an error which causes the product to be defective, it doesn’t matter if everyone else does perfect work.  The product is still worthless.  Each person whose job is a kind of bottlenecks in a production process has leverage for bargaining for more money.

4. Difficult to measure performance

In many jobs, it is hard to measure whether someone is working hard or not.  When it is impossible to monitor someone’s work, it is impossible to use extrinsic motivation and intrinsic motivators become more important.

Scott points out that the difficulty in measuring output was the reason why empires could only begin in places with highly-productive grain agriculture because it was too hard for central management to tax other kinds of production.  Scott says grain production was uniquely easy to tax in the ancient world (although woven textiles were similarly easy to tax) and these activities were also amenable to slave production because output was relatively easy to measure and extract. 

5. Other management methods have become more efficient

Powerful people can use force (slavery), payment or ideology (such as religion) to motivate their followers in a social hierarchy.  In primitive economies with little monetary exchange, payment was difficult to arrange, and leadership persuasion was limited to the number of people who could listen in the same physical space, so force & slavery was relatively more important than today. For example, Glyn Davies claims that because ancient Egypt lacked money, they were dependent upon slavery for managing large projects:

In the absence of money, or given the limited range of monetary uses in certain ancient civilizations, it is little wonder the completion of large-scale and long-term contracts was usually based on slavery. Thus the building of the Great Pyramid of Ghiza, the work of 100,000 men, and a logistical problem commensurate with its immense size, was made possible at that time only by the existence of slavery

Of course, slavery didn’t get banned globally until thousands of years after money became widespread, but better technologies for motivating workers is certainly part of the reason for eliminating slavery and money didn’t become abundant enough to become part of everyday life for the median worker until after industrialization and the revolutions in finance that brought.

But the increasing monetization of economic activity has changed everything.  It made it feasible to tax more and more activities which has facilitated the growth of governments, and in parallel, it has also made it possible to create large hierarchical organizations like corporations that motivate workers through monetary wages.  Money is a better motivator for most modern production than slavery.

Nassim Taleb argues that Roman elites preferred slaves for important tasks like taking care of large estates because slaves could be tortured if the task wasn’t done well and employees literally had less skin in the game. But there are additional technologies for motivating workers nowadays and it has never been clear that torture is ever a particularly effective way to motivate workers.  That is why some slave owners didn’t torture their slaves; some even paid their slaves a wage.

The advent of mass communication technologies beginning with the printing press have made it easier to influence and coordinate masses of people through verbal persuasion too. Educational systems create habits of obedience and norms of compliance in workers.  Mass communication technologies and monetization created alternate routes of influence that diminish the utility of using force.   

When slavery was legal, its profitability in some occupations and unprofitability in others helped explain why it was more likely to exist in some places and occupations than others.   For example, David Friedman argued (in chapter 15) that slavery wasn’t profitable in Britain and France during the period when it was taking off in the American colonies and even in the American colonies, it was only profitable for some crops like cotton and much less profitable in others like tobacco. 

Britain tried using prisoners to do forced labor in maintaining the Thames River, but the value of their labor was less than the cost of maintaining the prisoners.  Whereas France succeeded in using forced labor for galley rowers, when they tried using slaves in the arsenal at the port of Marseilles, the experiment wasn’t profitable enough to be emulated elsewhere in France.  Wages in Europe were lower than in the Americas at that time which meant that slave labor was more valuable in the Americas, but slave labor was only profitable if it was cheap to keep slaves from escaping (such as on the galley of a ship) and easy to measure and incentivize their output (simple for picking cotton).  In most occupations, it was cheaper to just hire someone for a wage.  Indeed, slave owners sometimes paid their slaves a wage in addition to the threats of violence because wages provided better motivation to get them to work harder. 

In the northern part of the United States, slavery didn’t work as well because there was more physical capital in factories and motivating using force didn’t work as well in northern industries as in the cotton industry in the South. In the US, cotton and sugar cane were the main industries that employed slaves and you can cotton production alone explains most US slaves as is shown by the geographic correlation between the two:

US Cotton Production in 1880:

cottonUS Slave Population:

slave

6. Cultural change

The institution of slavery varied widely from time to time due to cultural forces.  For example, China banned chattel slavery during the Han dynasty due to Confucian cultural influence, but continued Corvée slavery until relatively recently and prisoner slavery continues to this day.  The first big change in global ideology began in the late 1700s when the abolition movement spread across rich nations along with the concept of human rights.  This rights revolution helped lead to women’s rights and democratic rights and the abolition of slavery was part of that ideological revolution.  It isn’t clear what caused that revolution in ideology. 

One of the motivations for slave owners was profit, but the social status of being a slave owner was also an important motivator.  This helps explain why people kept trying to use slave labor for industries in which wage labor was more profitable!  A slave was a potent symbol of status given that a single slave was often as valuable as an average farm.  

The $400 average slave price in 1850 can also be thought of as a signaling device of status in a period where the annual per capita income was about $110. Relative earnings can be viewed as the ability to purchase expensive goods. Today, the middle and upper-middle classes aspire to goods and services such as a second home, and an expensive car as a way of showing others that they have “arrived”– that they have achieved some status in the economy. The average slave price in 1850 was roughly equal to the average price of a house, so the purchase of even one slave would have given the purchaser some status…

Relative Earnings of Owning a Slave in 2020 Prices

table-4

Plus, no other possession could possibly give the same feeling of dominance as a slave for people who like to feel power over others and Christopher Brown says that a large proportion of slaves throughout history were women and children who were coveted not because they were productive, but for the consumption value of owning humans that were treated like very expensive pets.  Slaves have always also been used for sex and sex trafficking is a persistent form of slavery that continues across the globe today. 

Christopher Brown says that it was the ideological change that began to disparage slavery and stopped slaves from being a status symbol that ended slavery.  Wherever slaves became unfashionable, the practice started to disappear, but he argues that it could still be profitable today if not for the historical accidents that caused the cultural change that eliminated legal slavery.  

7. Other explanations? 

I favor the structural changes in society that made slavery less productive relative to other ways to organize hierarchies, but I included the cultural change hypothesis and if you have another explanation for why slavery suddenly got abolished everywhere on the globe after so many millennia, please send me an email or leave a message in comments.  

Do white Americans owe reparations to African-Americans because whites have slave owners in their family tree?

Because most African slaves were transported to the USA before 1808 (when the import of new slaves was banned) and because most Europeans immigrated to America well after the Civil War, the average African-American has a much longer and deeper American heritage than the average white American (or Asian or Hispanic). In this way, African-Americans are more American than any other group other than Native Americans.

We do owe a debt of gratitude to our forebears for what they have left us, but there is no evidence that anyone is better off today specifically because of slavery except individuals who directly inherited slave wealth and only a minority of Americans ever owned slaves at the peak. In 1860, only “5.67 percent of the free population of the confederacy were slave owners”. Of course, that only includes male property owners because women didn’t have any rights, but even with the most expansive definition, if we expand the definition of slaveowner to include all people whose family members owned slaves, then 30.8% of the free population in the South were part of a slave-owner family (and to complicate the picture even more, thousands of these slave owners were free Blacks who were often themselves descendants of slaves). Because the confederacy only contained 24% of the free population of the US in 1860, only about 7.2% of American families owned slaves in 1860. Given that about 10% of American men enlisted to fight in the Civil War, a larger percent of white American families fought in the Civil War to end slavery.

Furthermore, the majority of Americans alive today are descended from immigrants who arrived after 1860 without any direct lineage to antebellum America. For example, in 1900, 35% of Americans were first or second generation immigrants and massive immigration continued over the next 122 years. Still today about 14% of Americans are foreign-born first generation immigrants including about 9% of Black Americans. Although there has been some intermarriage between descendants of slaveowners and later immigrants, most Americans have married other people of a similar ethnic, religious, and class background due to homophily. As a result of massive immigration since the Civil War, today I’d guess that close to zero percent of Asian-American and Hispanic-American families can trace ancestry back to slaveholders, and maybe 3% of white American families, so very few Americans have benefitted from an unbroken chain of inheritance from slave wealth that directly passed down to today.

In a horrible irony of American history, although most whites Americans are not descended from slave owners, most African-Americans probably are! That is because about 24% of African-American DNA comes from European who were probably mostly slave owners. Although we don’t know exactly how much of that DNA came from slave-owners, one of the common perks of having total control over slaves was the ability to have sex with them and southern society actively discouraged or even banned consensual inter-racial dating.

Although there are some wealthy Americans (perhaps including some wealthy African-Americans) whose families directly inherited slave wealth and they literally owe a tremendous debt to slavery, slaveowners were always only a tiny fraction of Americans because they were only the elites of the southern states and rich elites are always only a tiny fraction of the population. So the only way that slavery could have increased anyone else’s wealth would be if slavery had been much more productive than wage labor and most evidence says the opposite – that slavery is bad for economic development.

Was slavery so highly productive that we owe a debt of gratitude to slaves?

Adam Smith was one of the first to argue that slavery is less productive than free labor. He believed that violence is a worse motivator than a personal desire to support one’s family and improve one’s lot in life. Plus, violence requires expensive paid overseers who are inefficient because they do not produce anything but violence.

The idea that slavery was more productive than wage labor was first promoted by slave owners themselves as part of their justification for owning slaves. During the American Civil War, they warned that the world’s textile industry would collapse without the cheap cotton that slave plantations produced. That didn’t happen. Yes, there was a dramatic spike in American cotton prices during the war. But post slavery, prices plummeted back to the same as before and the global textile industry just kept chugging along.

Real cotton prices adjusted by GDP Deflator (Base 1 in 1800)

The destruction and dislocation of the Civil War destroyed productivity which was hard to recover from, but by the 1870s, US cotton farmers had already become a lot more productive than they ever were during slavery.

Karl Smith

It turns out that whereas wage labor (and small farm output) was less profitable for the rich plantation owners, it didn’t have much effect on cotton buyers because slave labor wasn’t more productive.

Instead, a history of extractive institutions like slavery reveals that it created a lingering curse. Areas that had more slavery tend to be poorer today than areas that abolished slavery sooner. That is true of states in America as well as regions of the globe. For example, when Russia abolished serfdom (a medieval form of slavery), productivity soared.

My former professor, Dierdre McCloskey, argues correctly that if slavery was the key to American prosperity as some people claim today, then societies that had slavery for longer should be even more prosperous than America, but that isn’t the case:

outright slavery was the practice of African kingdoms long before the British or even the Portuguese knew anything about them. True, the Atlantic slave trade gave the African kings a profitable market in which to sell their fellow Africans… The East African slave trade, note, was as large as and lasted longer than the West African one. Yet it did not cause an enriching “capitalism” to flourish in the Middle East. The Barbary pirates and their North African allies and competitors enslaved European sailors or the victims of coastal raids in large numbers for hundreds of years, yet no Great Enrichments ensued there. The very word “slave,” of course, comes from “Slav,” those enslaved on the east side of the Holy Roman Empire and seized by Mongols in the Golden Horde north of the Black Sea and sold into the markets of Constantinople/Istanbul. No Enrichment…

[Slaves were never that profitable in America because they were not particularly cheap labor.] To think so is to get the accounting and the economics wrong. Slaves required food [shelter and clothing], as a tractor requires fuel. A slave in Charleston in 1860 sold for three times the average workingman’s annual in­come… So, as economic historians pointed out long ago, the profits from the West African trade stayed in Africa.

Obviously not all slave profits stayed in Africa, but McCloskey’s point is that, for example, when the King of Benin sold slaves to Western traders, that was very profitable for him (and other African slave dealers) because he stole the slaves without compensation. McCloskey argues that it was this initial enslavement that was the most profitable part of the supply chain because the initial enslavement meant stealing free people and selling them for a high price. By the time slaves were bought by Southern plantations, their enormously expensive price meant that there was only an average return on investment.

For example, the average price of a slave in 1850 was roughly equal to the average price of a house, so it would require a massive amount of work to break even on that enormous investment given the low-productivity work that slaves did. Basically when someone bought a slave, they were paying all the lifetime wages up front. That was impossible for any but the wealthiest Americans to finance.

In 1860 the average price of a slave was about $800 which is the equivalent of over $200,000 today relative to the wages of unskilled workers which is the best comparison for the opportunity cost of a slave. If one would buy a slave for $200,000 today, it wouldn’t be particularly profitable because in addition to the initial outlay, you’d still have to spend a lot of money on supervision, food, healthcare, shelter and other costs. For most occupations it would be a lot cheaper to just hire an employee and pay a wage. The same was true in the 1800s. Slaves were extremely expensive and for most types of jobs other than cotton and sugar cane, it was cheaper to just pay a wage.

If slavery had been a major source of American prosperity, then other places that practiced slavery in the 1800s like the Caribbean, Brazil, Africa and the Middle East should also be prosperous today, but they are not. The biggest accomplishment in all of economic development was the industrial revolution and that originated in England because of high wages, not the low wages of slavery. If slavery had not been banned in England on the eve of the industrial revolution, there would not have been the incentive to have the industrial revolution there because slaves might have been cheaper than machines. England had some of the highest wages in the world at the dawn of the industrial revolution and that created a big incentive to produce labor-saving machines there. High wages also meant that ordinary people had more money to invest in wide-spread education and experiments which helped boost the scientific revolution too. None of that would have been likely to happen if England had been a slave society like the American South where aristocrats spent their time worrying about how to prevent slave revolts rather than worrying about how to apply new engineering technologies to save money on high labor costs. Slavery helps explain why the American South lagged behind the North in education, science, and productivity.

Indeed, one of the theories for why the Roman Empire didn’t have an industrial revolution is because it was so dependent upon slavery which meant that Roman entrepreneurial talent focused more upon how to extract more work from slaves rather than thinking about developing technologies that reduce the work of laborers.

And one of the theories for why Europe did invent the industrial revolution before anywhere else was the cultural change in which the Catholic church gradually banned the chattel enslavement of Christians in Europe. European elites then adopted a milder form of slavery called serfdom, but church leaders kept discouraging that in favor of wage labor. Partly as a result, northern Europe ended up having some of the highest wages in the world which helped motivate entrepreneurs to figure out how to enslave wind power, water power, and then coal power partly because they were restricted from enslaving human power.

The American South had plenty of ability to produce cotton without slavery in the 18th and 19th centuries, so slavery only changed the distribution of resources in slave societies without significantly increasing production. But we have inherited a few benefits of slavery that would not exist today without the pernicious institution. For example, many of world’s ancient monuments probably would not have been built without slavery because they were too extravagant to justify the cost without free labor. Similarly, we might not have all of our Greek art and philosophy without slavery because the Greek elites wouldn’t have had so much time and money to spend on the “liberal arts” without the “slave arts” producing all their necessities. But by the renaissance, slavery was no longer necessary to achieve monuments like the Cathedrals and arts like Michalengelo’s statue of David. The greater efficiency of wage labor led to the prosperity we have today.

The legacy of slavery is underdevelopment, not wealth. Some proponents of race-based reparations for slavery argue that we all owe a debt of gratitude to slaves of yore for bequeathing us the prosperity we have today. But there is no reason to pretend that slavery was an awesomely productive economic system to justify reparations. For example, European Jews got reparations without resorting to the argument that the holocaust was an awesomely productive economic system!

Slavery definitely hurt poor countries, particularly in Africa

Above I explained how slavery probably hurt rich countries and definitely didn’t help them get rich, and it definitely hurt poor countries which were generally slower to abolish slavery than most rich countries. As you can imagine, if you lived in a nation where people were routinely kidnapped and enslaved, that would not lead to your nation’s prosperity. Although this has happened around the world at different times in history, it was particularly pernicious in Africa.

Brad Delong (2022, p.346) estimates that whereas the slavers of North Africa kidnapped perhaps 1.5million Europeans into slavery in the millennium before 1800, and between 1400 and 1800, perhaps 3 million Slavic people were enslaved and sold in markets south of the Black Sea, this pales in comparison with the booming African slave exports of 13million across the Atlantic to the Americas (1600-1850), 5million across the Indian Ocean between 1000-1900 (mostly to the Middle East) and 3million carried north across the Sahara from 1200-1900, plus untold millions more who were enslaved by African elites an remained in Africa.

There is a LOT of evidence that the African slave trade was horrible for African culture and institutions and these durable, extractive institutions continue to hold Africa back from achieving its economic potential.

Summary

Slavery was nearly universal for most of history (societies that left a written record) and we are all descendants of slaves if you go back far enough. There have been many forms of slavery and some were worse than others. The abolition movement that suddenly gained momentum in the 1800s finally resulted in slavery being banned everywhere in the world in the 2000s although forced labor lives on to this day either through illegal private actions or through government incarceration. Slavery is NOT the source of modern prosperity. If it were, then Egypt would be fabulously wealthy with its string of slave-built ancient monuments and long history of slavery stretching back from Biblical times until the 1930s, but Egypt is a poor nation. If anything, a recent history of slavery is a curse that is associated with reduced modern prosperity.

Posted in Development, Discrimination, Violence & Peace

Unions and the mafia


There is very little scholarly research about unions and organized crime according to an article and book I found on the topic. At this point the topic now seems unimportant because unions have been in decline in the USA and the mafia largely lost control over  unions by the 1990s.  The book said that the US is the only nation in the developed world where unions were repeatedly infiltrated by organized crime and it argues that that is one reason why the US is less unionized than most rich nations.  All of the scholars agreed that mafia involvement was bad for unionization because the mafia makes money by extracting money from the unions and extorting businesses.  They essentially taxed the unions which reduced union efficiency and reduced the benefits of unions for workers and reduced union jobs and increased opposition to unionization.

For a popular-culture example of how inept the mafia was at running a productive organization, see the award-winning film, The Irishman, which is allegedly based on actual events.  It portrays the mafia as a bunch of inept thugs and mafia involvement was politically disastrous for unions because it helped turn public sentiment against unions in the US. If you do a Google search for unions, you will find lots of anti-union organizations because corporate owners are happy to fund them. They talk a lot about mafia involvement in unions, so evidently the corporate-funded anti-union organizations think it helps reduce political support for unions.

Although the mafia may have helped destroy the union movement in the US, other forces are much more important for explaining both the dramatic rise unions and their fall. Unionization had already began to fall when the FBI finally began cracking down on labor racketeering (as mafia involvement is called) in the 1970s.  The mafia’s involvement in unions was mostly destroyed by the end of the 1990s or shortly thereafter (according to one researcher and the  FBI) but unionization has continued to decline since then.  Plus, there were unions without organized crime such as the Congress of Industrial Organizations (CIO) that were not infiltrated by the mob whose fortunes mirrored with the rest.  Today, the three biggest unions in America are unions that never had mafia ties:  the National Education Association of the United States (teachers), Service Employees International Union (health and gov’t), and the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees.

As this list shows, the only unions that have continued to thrive in the past half century are the unions whose employees are mainly funded by government: teachers, health workers, police, firefighters, and other government employees. These are also the only unions that have never been opposed by a concentrated interest group (corporate owners).

Posted in Labor

Why buy a lotto ticket when other kinds of gambling are much more profitable?

The lottery is much less efficient than most form of gambling than most because each lottery ticket has an expected loss of more than 50% after taxes whereas slot machines have an expected loss of only about 10% and the stock market actually has a real expected gain of about 7% per year in the long run if stocks are picked randomly. (Unfortunately, most people, including experts, do worse than random when they put effort into deliberately picking individual stocks). Although the lottery is inefficient it appeals to the minority of Americans who buys lottery tickets.

But why buy lotto tickets when there are much more efficient ways to gamble? Ben Orlin wrote a great explainer for all the theories why people buy lotto tickets, but only a few theories explain why anyone would prefer a gamble that is so much worse than most other gambling opportunities. I think the best explanation is The Dreamer. A lotto ticket is like a movie ticket for daydreams in which the buyer is the star of the show. Because the maximum potential lotto win is bigger than in any other gamble, it helps paint a more dramatic possible life story than any other form of gambling with smaller payouts.

Posted in Labor

How pyramid schemes work

An individual who joins a multi-level marketing (MLM) company can make money by selling products directly to consumers AND more importantly by getting other people to become distributors at a lower level in the pyramid. In fact, even if nobody ever sells any products to ordinary consumers, people at the top of the pyramid can make a lot of money by recruiting lots of people to become distributors because all the distributors have to pay for inventory, samples, and marketing supplies.

Everyone who sells for a MLM has to sign a business contract which few have time to read:

When they initially sign on work with an MLM, distributors may not recognize the full extent of the terms that the MLM will attempt to hold them to. While a potential distributor might be presented with a brief, one page document to sign, those short forms often cross-reference and purport to integrate huge, outside documents outlining terms that heavily favor the MLM. These additional documents could include disciplinary procedures allowing the MLM to terminate a distributor with little or no due process or compensation. They can also include terms that are so vague that they leave the MLM near-absolute discretion to interpret its side of the deal as it sees fit.

Now the FTC is reviewing whether MLMs should be held to the same standards as other businesses and have to provide information to potential distributors about how much their existing distributors profit before signing a contract. Such transparency rules are becoming more important as the economy shifts towards increasing gig employment, but the MLM industry is lobbying hard against it and say that it could ruin the industry because MLM companies are unprofitable for all but a tiny percent of distributors:

According to the Direct Selling Association, the multilevel marketing (MLM) industry’s lobbying arm, one in six American households is involved in the industry. Most MLM salespeople don’t make a ton of money — a 2017 report by the Federal Trade Commission found that 99 percent of MLM sellers actually lose money. The website Magnifymoney recently polled 1,049 MLM sellers across various companies and found that most sellers make less than the equivalent of 70 cents an hour. Nearly 20 percent of those polled never made a sale, and nearly 60 percent earned less than $500 in sales over the past five years.

Similarly, according to a study released by AARP Foundation:

Among the more than 20 million Americans who participate or have participated in multilevel marketing (MLM) organizations, 90 percent say they got involved to make money. However, nearly half (47 percent) lose money and a quarter (27 percent) make no money.

Those surveys actually paint the industry in a pretty generous light compared with some other researchers. A study by the Consumer Awareness Institute found that 99 percent of MLM sellers lose money. The FTC found that even the top 1% BIGGEST Amway sellers in Wisconsin lost money on average and less than one tenth of one percent (0.001) of NuSkin sellers earned a profit (although the insiders at the top did make millions of dollars!). The FTC analyzed 29 MLM companies including Herbalife, Sunrider, and Tupperware. At all of the MLMs studied, more than 99% of participants lost money. 99.7% of Amway sellers lost money in the UK too.

Every study agrees that MLMs are unprofitable for most sellers among the bottom 90%- 99% because there are inherent problems with the MLM supply chain.  It is comically inefficient at getting products from manufacturers to consumers and that leads to excessively high prices.  

And the growth of MLMs is a movement in the opposite direction of technological advances are moving the rest of retailing. Technological change over the past century has tended to cause disintermediation (also known as vertical integration) in retail which cuts out as many middlemen as possible.   

Before the internet, there were door-to-door traveling salesmen who had a supply chain with many middlemen that looked like this:

Manufacturer: $50 cost + $50 markup (100%)

Distributor: $100 cost + $30 markup (30%)

Door-to-door Retailer: $130 cost + $50 markup (28%)

Consumer: $180 price paid

This supply chain has the so-called “double” markup problem even though there is actually a triple markup. Each level has an incentive to markup the price as much as the next level will bear which creates inefficiently high prices. The optimal, profit-maximizing markup is determined by the elasticity of demand, but each level of markup has an incentive to maximize their share of the markup and when that happens at every part of the supply chain the end result is an inefficienly high price that hurts everyone in the supply chain because a lot of customers stop buying because the price is too high. Disintermediation is what all big retailers have done. They cut out middlemen between the manufacturer and the consumer. They buy directly from manufacturers and then add only about a 30% markup which is a lot smaller than the old markup for labor-intensive sales methods like door-to-door and MLM:

Manufacturer: $50 cost + $50 markup (100%)

Big Retailer: $100 cost + $30 markup (30%)

Consumer: $130 price paid

This supply chain only has a double markup problem because disintermediation eliminated some of the extra markups in the supply chain and achieved greater economies of scale and higher profits because greater efficiency leads to a lower price which boosts the quantity of sales. If it were profit maximizing for big retailers to charge $180, they would do so, but the fact that they charge less means that eliminating the markup of an intermediary and thereby lowering prices is actually better for profits. Big-box and internet retail have dramatically increased retail efficiency and that has almost completely eliminated door-to-door sales and decimated small ‘main street’ retailers. Some manufacturers like Dell have taken disintermediation even further and even eliminated the retailer. No double markup problem:

Manufacturer (Dell): $50 cost + $50 markup (100%)

Consumer: $100 price paid

MLMs have done the opposite of disintermediation. Instead of cutting players out of the supply chain, MLMs add additional layers to the supply chain and each level adds a markup which drives up costs more than in any other kind of supply chain.

Manufacturer: $50 cost + $50 markup (100%)

Top of the pyramid: $100 cost + $10 markup (10%)

Platinum level: $110 cost + $11 markup (10%)

Gold level: $121 cost + $12 markup (10%)

Silver level: $133 cost + $13 markup (10%)

Ruby level: $147 cost + $15 markup (10%)

Emerald level: $162 cost + $16 markup (10%)

Bottom of the pyramid level: $178 cost + $36 markup (20%)

Consumer: $214 price — but it is hard to get anyone to buy such overpriced merchandise

This hypothetical supply chain shows a MLM with only seven levels between the producer and ultimate consumer, but many MLMs have many, many more levels than that. For example, Amway officially lists 22 “levels of achievement” in their award system. I do not know how big the markup is for each level of the pyramid, but any markup is inefficient when the ‘middle-man’ is just a ‘middle-man’. The reality is that only the top <1% of the elites at the pinnacle of a MLM pyramid get any profits. Almost nobody at the lower levels even break even because they buy so much inventory and supplies from their upline handlers and sell so little, but the dream is to make the sort of big markups shown above.

In addition to the extra costs of Many Levels of Markup, MLM distribution also has less efficiency than the logistics systems that competitors like Amazon and Walmart use for distributing goods across the nation. Because the MLM supply chain is so much less efficient than ordinary retailing, MLMs cannot compete directly with the big retailers, so MLMs are forced to invest in product differentiation efforts which further inflates costs.

As a result of their high costs, many MLMs mainly sell to their ‘sellers’ instead of selling to consumers. The only way to make a living in MLM is not to sell products to individual consumers, but to get other people to become sellers for you who will be required to buy a lot of inventory in their “starter package” so that they can dream of getting others to sell below them.

As a result of their high costs, MLMs struggle to sell to consumers, but that isn’t really the goal. The only way to make a living in MLM is not to sell products to individual consumers, but sell other people on becoming sellers who will work under you in the pyramid. Every seller is required to buy a “starter package” with lot of inventory and that is the real MLM business. In the UK, 90% of Amway sellers did not sell a single item to anyone, but they all had to buy a lot of inventory.

Unlike most retail businesses, MLMs don’t bother advertising directly to consumers much because their main customers are not consumers but potential sellers. For example, Amway sells consumer packaged goods and in that industry, the typical company spends 24% of their budget on marketing. Amway hardly advertises any of their specific products at all because their pyramid of sellers does time-consuming word-of-mouth advertising for free.

An army of word-of-mouth marketers is an inefficient use of time, and no company could afford to pay a living wage for such inefficient marketing, but that isn’t a worry for MLMs.

What little advertising Amway does do is to sell the company because their real customer is not the end consumers, but potential sellers. That is why the link they pay for when you do a Google search for “amway” turns up “startabusiness” as you can see below. They don’t market their products because their main goal is to attract potential sellers and that is the focus of their advertising dollars as shown here.

Everyone knows you cannot make a living wage selling products directly to consumers door-to-door anymore so the real dream for MLM sellers is to get other sellers under you in the pyramid who you can skim money off of. The only reason your underlings would join is also hopes of getting more underlings to join under them. The easiest targets are your family and friends, but once you get them to sell the same thing you are selling, market saturation soon means that nobody can make money. This is the opposite of the old single-level direct sales model where professional door-to-door sellers didn’t want anyone else to sell the same products in their territory. MLMs get as many people as possible selling the same thing in the same territory.

For traditional door-to-door sales, each seller jealously guarded their territory because even one more salesperson in a territory would saturate the market and leave more work and less revenues for both sellers. But in the MLM model, each salesperson wants as many sellers as possible regardless of whether it saturates their market because they do not care about efficient scale. If each person wants at least 10 sellers in the level below them, then with three levels there are 100 sellers and with six levels there are a million. Just six levels in the pyramid creates almost three times more workers than Target’s total American workforce, and most MLMs have many more than six levels. Amway lists 22 “levels! Amway is the biggest MLM and they try to keep how many sellers they have a secret, but the Chinese government reported that Amway had 1.5 million sellers in China and they have been estimated to have 700,000 in North America. Just Amway’s sellers in China and North America equal Walmart’s worldwide total of 2.2 million employees and Amway probably has millions more sellers worldwide because China and North American only represent a couple percent of the over 100 countries where Amway operates. Although Amway has many more workers than Walmart, Walmart’s global revenues in 2019 were 61 times bigger than Amway’s, so Walmart’s revenues per employee are undoubtedly much more 100 times bigger than Amway’s. With Walmart generating more than 100 times more revenues per employee than Amway, it would be hard for Amway to pay each seller one percent as much as Walmart pays its sellers. But retail is not a highly paid industry and even highly-efficient Walmart doesn’t have a reputation for high wages.

Inefficient scale and market saturation sets in quickly for MLMs. The math just doesn’t work for this business model to be profitable for the bulk of the people below the pinnacle of the pyramid. Since an MLM is a very inefficient supply chain technology, what explains why it has been a more successful business model than most other retailing systems in recent decades?

Ironically, the same information technology revolution that has enabled the disintermediation of global supply chains by electronically connecting each cash register in each store to manufacturers across the globe has also fueled the growth of MLMs over the past half century. Social networking technology has boosted MLMs by making it easier to leverage one’s social network than the old days when social networks were dependent on face-to-face communication and snail mail. So the same communication technology revolution that boosted Amazon and nearly eliminated door-to-door sales have also dramatically boosted MLMs because it is easier for individuals to network online and use social media to sell to their friends and family. In 1990, 75% of the companies in the Direct Sales Association used single-level (door-to-door) sales and only 25% was MLM. Twenty years later, in 2009, over 94% of firms in the Direct Sales Association were MLM (and only 6% single-level) and MLMs accounted for 99.6% of sellers.

Technology has made it nearly impossible to compete with mail order and Walmart doing door-to-door sales, so the direct sales industry has abandoned that methodology and moved to an even less efficient business model where the real goal is to recruit other sellers instead of selling products directly to consumers. Imagine if MLMs sold everything: all companies including Ford, Ikea, and Proctor and Gamble were MLMs. It would be a mess. Cars and furniture and Tide laundry detergent would be much more expensive. America would be an inefficient nation of shopkeepers all hustling to get others to sell for us.

The inefficiently high transactions cost of MLM sales means that they cannot compete with traditional retailers when selling products whose quality is easily compared.  That is why MLMs focus on selling placebo products.  These are products whose quality is highly subjective and prone to suggestion.  Dubious wellness products are a natural fit for pyramid schemes, but because of medical licensure regulations, only vitamins, supplements and ‘snake-oil’ devices like magnets are legally viable for pyramid schemes.  Beauty products, soaps and cleaning products, clothing, jewelry, travel packages, handicrafts, and status goods are also good products for MLMs as long as the quality is highly subjective and susceptible to suggestion and these are common in pyramid schemes.

Drugs like alcoholcaffeine, and medical marijuana are also highly prone to placebo suggestions.  So naturally there are pyramid schemes selling them despite the complicated difficulties of complying with numerous regulations on selling psychoactive drugs.

In an efficient supply chain, each level of the chain adds value. For example, a distributor manages the logistics of shipping and warehousing for a wide area more efficiently than any other company. A retailer adds value by adding essential service and support and the convenience for customers of having many complementary products located in the same place. In comparison, is there any value added by the many levels of a MLM?

For the elites at the top of the pyramid, the hierarchical organizational structure works great. The the 0.1% of people at the top who make money know that in reality, there are mainly just two levels, them and all their worker bees below who pay for the inventory up front, store the inventory in their homes, deliver the inventory to customers (if any), market the goods, and most importantly, provide the human resources management for recruiting and training new workers. All of this is done without the elites paying any wages. MLM companies don’t have to spend much money on advertising, recruiting employees, warehousing, and the expensive last mile of delivery because the 99% below the peak of the pyramid do it all for free.

Another way that some MLMs add value for the elites at the top (but not for end consumers) is that MLMs are good at getting their foot soldiers to make misleading claims about products. There is no practical way to hold the foot soldiers accountable for making fraudulent claims because each seller is doing very little business and making no money and it isn’t worth anyone’s time to prosecute them for making illegal exaggerations. For example, my father was snookered into selling expensive “healing” magnets and “medicinal” supplements and he really believed that these products were medical miracles. His faith in the products made him an ideal seller and he made illegal health claims about these products to friends and family, but nobody prosecutes individuals talking medical BS with their family and friends. In contrast, if the MLM’s management had been documented making the same kind of claims to the public, the FDA would shut down the entire company for practicing medicine without a license and making fraudulent health claims!

Gaby Del Valle found an example of a MLM company using its multiple levels to distance the wealthy leaders at the peak of the scheme from their debts and unsavory parts of their business in the lower levels to try to insulate themselves from legal liability. Similarly, companies like Uber have also fought expensive battles to prevent their drivers from being classified as employees because that would mean that the corporation would be legally responsible for their workers.

This is one of the functions of the bizarre organizational structure of pyramid schemes.  The leaders who are accumulating most of the wealth do it by form a hierarchy of multiple layers of “independent contractors.” But unlike a normal bureaucracy, very few of the workers in the organizational hierarchy are employees because almost the entire organization is made up of salespeople and none of the salespeople in massive bottom levels of the hierarchy are employees.  Therefore, the masterminds at the top cannot be held legally responsible when their minions earn less than minimum wage or go bankrupt or, perhaps most importantly, when they fabricate claims about their products’ miraculous qualities or use other unethical sales tactics.

Illegal drugs are also sold in a business model that is similar to a MLM except with less branding and even more decentralization.  Like multi-level marketing, illegal drug gangs need to insulate the big-money managers at the top of the pyramid from the street dealers who are taking everyday risks selling the product to numerous buyers. 

As with more legitimate pyramid schemes, the arms-length distance between the gang leaders and each layer of “independent contractors” gets a cut of profits and marks up the drugs that finally make it to the street vendors. The extra layers reduce the cost-efficiency of the supply chain, but they dramatically reduce the risk for the drug kingpins at the top of the pyramid and that is the point of having the inefficient organizational structure.

MLMs have also found a market niche by creating a social community for their sellers. I have had numerous relatives including my father who liked the social aspects and the optimistic dreams of MLM culture. Whereas nearly all Americans shop at the big retailers, most Americans never buy anything from MLMs and only a minority of Americans puts a large fraction of their household resources into in this kind of supply chain. According to the MLM industry lobby, only about 16% of American households are involved, and this may be overstating it because the industry has an incentive to exaggerate their reach.

The real benefit of MLMs for most sellers is not the money, but the social community for the 99% who buy inventory that greatly exceeds their sales. They lose money from the business, but they do get lots of social support and self-esteem-boosting praise and encouragement from their upline handlers. An MLM is like a social club with conferences and parties where like-minded people can discuss their shared hobby and ideology. We don’t expect most people can make money from their clubs and hobbies, so we shouldn’t expect MLMs to be any different. Here a clip from a great podcast called The Dream showing the real benefits of an MLM in the words of women who don’t make any money, and love it nonetheless.

These happy MLM members gush about how their MLM has boosted their self-esteem and helped them develop a community and helped them pursue a dream. That was what my parents loved about MLMs. My mother lost money in her Discovery Toys business, but she loved throwing parties and she loved buying the toys for her grand kids. It also gave her an identity as a businesswoman. When people asked what she did, she could say she was an entrepreneur and that is much more prestigeous than saying that she was an empty-nest housewife with a hobby that combined parties and buying an inventory of expensive toys for her grand kids.

My father also liked the social aspects of the MLMs he joined. He never really even tried to make any money. He sold everything to his friends at his cost or gave inventory away to family as gifts. He still ended up with a lot of inventory that he couldn’t sell even at his cost and after he died I ended up selling it on Ebay for below what he paid, or giving it away. But dad had no regrets about that. He liked the conventions and the dream of it all.

Some MLMs are much worse than others in terms of how much money they suck out of their average member and how healthy the social support is that they provide in return. At the worst end are the cults and true pyramid schemes. All MLMs say that they are absolutely NOT a pyramid scheme because pure pyramid schemes are illegal. This may be true, but only because the legal definition of a pyramid scheme is very narrow due to extensive political lobbying by wealthy MLMs. Legally, a pyramid scheme doesn’t sell any goods or services to end consumers and make all of their money from people who intend to earn money from selling. In practice, many MLMs are very close to this standard. As mentioned before, one study found that only 10% of Amway members in the UK sold at least a single product to anyone else.

The original pyramid schemes were just like Ponzi schemes except that the pyramid schemes were more honest in that it should be obvious to everyone that all profits are dependent upon bringing in more “investors”. A true Ponzi scheme works exactly the same way as a pure pyramid scheme except that a true Ponzi scheme has a manager who

  1. Lies to the “investors” about where the return on investment is coming from. The Ponzi scheme manager usually claims to be a high ROI mutual fund or hedge fund, but they really pay a high ROI to previous investors from some of the money coming in from new investors.
  2. Does not pay previous “investors” specifically for bringing in new “investors”. Investors just get a fixed ROI determined by the manager. In contrast, a pyramid scheme is more honest because each “investor” knows that she won’t get paid unless she brings in enough new “investors” under her.
  3. Skims off some hidden profit and money to pay for administrating the scheme. In some pyramid schemes, there is no administrator to pay because the cash from the bottom level is paid directly to the person at the top of the pyramid.

Examples of pure pyramid schemes are the Airplane Game, Eight Ball, Blessing Loom (popular during the Covid pandemic), and “Make Money Fast” which was a chain-letter pyramid scheme.

MLMs combine elements of both Ponzi and pyramid schemes as well as legitimate direct sales organizations (which is what all MLMs claim to be). For example, when the leaders of the Airplane Game realized that it was illegal to run a pyramid scheme that doesn’t involve selling any product, they decided to keep the pyramid scheme exactly the same, but give roses for the $1,500 required ‘investment’ so they could say that they were direct selling roses! Similarly, since only 10% of Amway sellers in the UK actually sell products to anyone, then 90% of that business is a pure pyramid scheme.

MLMs that use the party system invented by Tupperware seem to be farther away from the pure pyramid model and closer to direct sales because they claim to generate more money per seller. They also tend to have more of the benefits of social clubs since it is all about hosting parties! Other companies that have copied the party plan include Discovery Toys, Mary Kay, and Norwex. But there has been increasing temptation over the past half century to move away from the direct-selling model towards the pyramid-scheme model, so there is no guarantee that a direct-sales company will always be offering a legitimate business selling products.

MLMs try to argue that they are just like any other organization which all have a pyramid-shaped structure, but the incentives are what makes an MLM different from other types of supply chain. Jon Taylor researched over 600 MLMs to determine what makes them unique and Brett and Kate McKay compiled the list:

1. Incentives to recruit new distributors into the company. Jim earns a commission on the product the distributors below him buy from the parent company.

2. Advancement in the sales hierarchy is achieved by recruitment rather than by appointment. Jim can’t get to the next level in the sales hierarchy by someone above him saying “We think you’d be a good executive distributor.” It’s only determined by the number of people he recruits and that his sub-recruits recruit.

3. “Pay to play” requirements are met by ongoing “incentivized purchases” and/or recruitment minimums, with participants the primary buyers. To become a distributor, Jim had to buy a starter kit. To maintain his status as a distributor, he’s required to make minimum monthly purchases.

4. Company payout (in commissions & bonuses) per sale for the total of all upline participants equals or exceeds that for the person selling the product – resulting in inadequate incentive to retail and excessive incentive to recruit. Jim can make more money getting commissions off the product that distributors beneath him are required to buy from the company than he could from selling the shakes at retail to customers outside of the business.

Arguably the most defining feature of an MLM is that the main customers of the company’s products are not unassociated folks outside the company, but the distributors within it.

For a more biting critique of MLMs, see Steven Hassan of the Freedom of Mind Resource Center who says that pyramid schemes have an an incentive to use same tactics to brainwash people that cults use. Some MLMs like NXIVM have actually become cults! Other resources include:

Or this cartoon:

Posted in Managerial Micro

Milton Friedman was not a rational actor

The rational-actor paradigm came to dominate social sciences such as economics in the mid-20th century. It assumes that people are selfish and try to rationally maximize their self-interest without regard for the effects on people around them. Critics sometimes call it the rat-actor paradigm, but that name really isn’t fair to rats who are often much more altruistic than the rat-actor paradigm assumes. The main reason why the rat-actor paradigm was successful at taking over economic thinking was that it is so simple and that made economic modelling easier to do. Simplicity was particularly important for mathematical modelling which came to dominate thinking in economics during this time because complexity is much harder to model with mathematical equations. And everyone has selfish impulses at times, so the rational actor paradigm sometimes does an OK good job predicting human behavior.

But the behavioral revolution in economics has been growing in influence over the past several decades by demonstrating that people are neither purely selfish nor rational.  We are predictably altruistic and irrational. For example, most people wouldn’t kill their parents for money even if they thought nobody could find out.  Lots of Americans could inherit more money sooner by killing their parents, but it seems to be a very rare phenomenon.

Duff McDonald wrote a book called The Golden Passport about “the Moral Failure of the MBA Elite” at Harvard Business school. McDonald wrote that because of adopting Friedman’s ideology, Harvard Business School changed from an place that emphasized the character of its MBA graduates into a place where professors focused on selfishness, and the Principle-agent theory which assumed that employees should maximize shareholder value:

The term Principle-agent theory was coined in the early 1970s and it suited Friedman’s idea that the owners of capital are principles whose agents (labor) should seek to benefit [the principles].

In a 1994 paper Jensen wrote with Meckling, “The Nature of Man,” he cited the story of George Bernard Shaw asking an actress if she would sleep with him for a million dollars. When she agreed, he changed his offer to $10, to which she responded with outrage, asking him what kind of woman he thought she was. His reply: “We’ve already established that. Now we’re just haggling about the price.” The authors then concluded that we’re all whores. “Like it or not, individuals are willing to sacrifice a little of almost anything we care to name, even reputation or morality, for a sufficiently large quantity of other desired things.”

The solution they offered was premised on this cynical view of man and, having started from the assumption that we are all whores, they naturally ended up with prescriptions for making us well-behaved whores. “Unlike theories in the physical sciences,” wrote Sumantra Ghoshal, a professor at the London Business School, in his 2005 paper, “Bad Management Theories Are Destroying Good Management Practice,” “theories in the social sciences tend to be self-fulfilling…. This is precisely what has happened over the last several decades, converting our collective pessimism about managers into realized pathologies in management behaviors.”

In other words, if everybody assumes you’re a whore, you might as well grab as much money as possible while you’re still in demand. “[By] propagating ideologically inspired amoral theories, business schools have actively freed their students from any sense of moral responsibility,” concluded Ghoshal.

…Recent studies by the Aspen Institute show that when students enter business school, they believe that the purpose of a corporation is to produce goods and services for the benefit of society. When they graduate, they believe that it is to maximize shareholder value.

…Way back in 1951, the chairman of Standard Oil of New Jersey—the company founded by the ultimate robber baron, John D. Rockefeller—said: “The job of management is to maintain an equitable and working balance among the claims of the various directly affected interest groups…stockholder, employees, customers, and the public at large.” …In 2004, again with Murphy, Jensen wrote,… “Two hundred years of work in economics and finance implies that in the absence of externalities and monopoly,” he thundered, “social welfare is maximized when each firm in an economy maximizes its total market value.” …Ghoshal at the London Business School laid out a comprehensive rejection of agency theory. He began by dismantling Friedman’s—and by extension, Jensen’s—argument that shareholders are the “owners” of a company. They’re not, at least if by “own” one means it in the way one can own a car or an iPhone. “We…know that the value a company creates is produced through a combination of resources contributed by different constituencies,” Ghoshal wrote. “If the value creation is achieved by combining the resources of both employees and shareholders, why should the value distribution favor only the latter?”

The rat-actor paradigm says that corporations are rat-actors. This is much more realistic than assuming humans are selfish sociopaths because corporations really do have more incentives to behave like sociopaths. But even corporations also have an altruistic side because they are run by people who have altruistic impulses. Milton Freidman thought that that was terrible. He believed that corporations should behave purely selfishly and maximize profits like the rat-actor paradigm predicts.

Every company’s profits have to be arbitrarily divided between workers (wages), owners (profits), and people outside the company (through lower prices or less pollution or some other social benefit). Friedman and other proponents of the Principle-agent paradigm thought that employees should be purely altruistic towards owners to maximize their profits and that we should eliminate all altruism towards anyone else. He recognized that the rest of society can legitimately pass laws to prevent the company from hurting other people or damaging other’s property (such as by polluting), and he said that companies should abide by such laws, but corporations have considerable lobbying clout to shape our laws and Friedman’s argument says it is the moral duty of firms to lobby and bend the political system to allow more selfish profits such as by reducing pollution regulations and enhancing corporate political power.

This idea became so fashionable that it took on the weight of law. Shareholders can sue corporate executives if they do something that is good for society if it is at the expense of profits!  In practice, it is very rare, but a legal threat that is rarely enforced can have a big impact on behavior a bit like the threat of being fined for jaywalking is almost never carried out and yet most pedestrians try to avoid illegal crossings and mostly cross streets in the crosswalks.

Although Friedman’s supporters persist in defending the idea, it seems that at the 50th anniversary of Friedman’s famous essay, the idea is increasingly seen as a mistake. One of the challenges for the rat-actor view is explaining why many of the people who found corporations reject the idea.  For example, GE CEO Jack Welch called maximizing shareholder value “the dumbest idea in the world” and Yvon Chouinard, and John Mackey, founders of Patagonia and Whole Foods respectively reject it out of hand.  McDonald points out that the founders of Harvard, which is also a corporation, certainly would not have agreed either. McDonald cites Joel Bakan’s 2005 book, The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power, which interviewed Friedman:

the economist repeated the point he’d made nearly 40 years before [about maximizing profits], but with a twist. In Friedman’s view, “hypocrisy is virtuous when it serves the bottom line… [whereas] moral virtue is immoral when it does not.”

Friedman’s idea here is that Corporations should be hypocrites that do marketing to fool customers and suppliers into believing that they are altruistic because people are attracted to altruistic companies and that can boost profits.  But to actually be altruistic which means to sacrifice for the benefit of others, would be immoral according to Friedman.

Steve Denning traced the origin of this profit-maximization ideology to Milton Friedman and entitled another essay about it “pernicious nonsense“.

Bower/Paine… provides powerful rational arguments as to why shareholder value thinking is financially, economically, legally, socially and morally wrong. Yet there are powerful vested interests in keeping things as they are. As Upton Sinclair pointed out a century ago, “It’s hard to get a man to understand something when he is being paid not to understand it.”

In his book, Fixing the Game, Roger Martin makes the case that if the NFL had become corrupted by gambling and manipulation of the score, everyone would be calling on the NFL Commissioner to intervene and ban the coaches and players involved so that teams could get back to playing the real game of football. Yet in business, when it is now obvious that shareholder value thinking has corrupted management and has led to the massive extraction of assets and illegal stock price manipulation on a macro-economic scale, society has remained silent too long.

As Bower and Paine pointed out their 2011 book, Capitalism at Risk, the stakes are high. Amid widespread distrust of business, “you cannot achieve a sense of legitimacy if large numbers of people think that the system doesn’t work for them or is unjust to them.”  As the business ecosystem heads off the rails, business needs to act out of enlightened self-interest.

Business leaders must move beyond being simply practitioners of capitalism and become its stewards, working to enhance the sustainability of the market system.

Roger Martin wrote that corporations that prioritize a bigger mission often end up more profitable than corporations that prioritize profits over all else just like individuals who prioritize their mission and purpose in life usually end up happier than people who only focus directly on selfishly doing whatever makes them happy.

Aristotle once opined: if you seek happiness, you probably won’t end up happy; but if you seek to lead a worthy life, you are likely to end up happy. Shareholder value and happiness are counterproductive to pursue directly; rather they will happen when other things are pursued. Customer satisfaction is not the only defensible objective function. My friend Vineet Nayar argues that putting employees first is the best strategy – and he may be right. The key is to have a level playing field among objective functions. Let’s give the pursuit of each objective function – shareholder value, customers, employees – a chance to compete for success rather than swallowing the fallacious argument that having a singular objective function means that it has to be shareholder value maximization.

The problem with Friedman’s view are numerous.

  1. It is bad for profits because ethics and altruism are crucial for humans to work together productively.  That is why altruistic ethical norms evolved in every society.
    1. The rat-actor paradigm is bad for motivating employees.  Because people are altruistic and seek meaning in life, they want to do more in the 80,000 hours they spend in their careers than making money for rich shareholders.  Purely selfish employees will find ways to lie, cheat, and steal for their own benefit and that is bad for shareholder profits.
    2. The rat-actor paradigm is bad for motivating customers.  The customer relationship depends on trust and customers have more trust for businesses that have a moral compass.
    3. The rat-actor paradigm is bad for business-2-business relationships for the same reasons as above.
  2. It is bad for society.  Social responsibility is a social responsibility.  Corporations are some of society’s most powerful institutions and If none of our most powerful institutions were trying to make society a better place, we would be much poorer as a whole.  Friedman assumes that what is good for the stock market is good for everyone, but most people realize that the stock market is not a good measure of wellbeing.  The profit-maximization era has been an era when corporate profits rose at the expense of the rest of society.  It has been an age of stagnant median income and declining trust in each other.  These trends cannot continue long-term without hurting corporate profits and overall economic growth has slowed during this same era.  When society does not function well, corporations do not function well either, but there is a free-rider problem that prevents selfish actors from making any sacrifice to improve society.
  3. Friedman qualifies his recommendations by saying that corporations should follow the rules of society, but profit-maximizing corporations can often make much more profit by warping the rules of society through lobbying and PR campaigns than by improving their production.  By Friedman’s view, it is the moral duty of corporations to bribe government through whatever means is not technically illegal if it helps corporations pollute more and extract more wealth from society.
    • Furthermore, the rules of society do not and cannot determine what is truly moral.  For example, it is not illegal to commit adultery, but that does not mean that adultery is moral.  Similarly, it is illegal to not pay taxes on a dollar of cash earnings or to drive one MPH above the speed limit, but most people do not think that these are less moral than exercising our legal right to call people the N-word as is enshrined in our constituion.  The rules of society differ from place to place and from time to time, but that does not mean that what is truly ethical changes (unless you are a hard-core moral relativist).  Just because slavery was accepted by most societies for most of history doesn’t mean that slavery is usually OK.  We should all aim to do better than the minimum set by the rules of society.

For more, see Steven Pearlstein who wrote that “the cult of shareholder value wrecked American business” and few ideas in the history of management have had such a pernicious effect. Jia Lynn Yang wrote a history in the Washington Post focusing on how it revolutionized IBM. Two Harvard Business School professors, Joseph L. Bower and Lynn S. Paine, called it, “the error at the heart of corporate leadership” in the HBR.

Posted in Medianism

Maurice Hilleman, millionaire superhero

Almost nobody has heard of Maurice Hilleman, but everyone should know his name. As Radiolab said, “his work is estimated to save about 8 million lives a year… he was the greatest scientist of the 20th century… We live longer because of him.”

He developed treatments that cured or prevented chlamydia, Japanese encephalitis, the flu, measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox hepatitis A, hepatitis B, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rubella and Haemophilus influenza. In addition to discovering several viruses and uses of antibiotics. This is a monumental amount of work. For example, the world record for the fastest vaccine ever produced (before the Coronavirus) was Hilleman’s four years of work to produce the mumps vaccine. Four years!

…he carried around a list …he kept in his pocket. [A] list of diseases that still had yet to be conquered. And I think it was a reminder that, you know, for him, his work would never be done… He would say it was like putting up a fence. …And then you’re done, and then you go back to doing it again. He was never, ever satisfied… Well, so after mumps, it was measles… And with measles, there’s actually already a vaccine in existence… And, I mean, that vaccine worked. But it wasn’t quite attenuated enough… Like, it wasn’t weak enough, so you would have to get another shot at the same time in your other arm so you didn’t get sick… Maurice then just took that virus and very quickly attenuated it so that it was perfect. That virus bounces off you. It’s a remarkable vaccine. And so we eliminated measles, the most contagious of the vaccine-preventable diseases, because it was so incredibly effective.

Maurice Hilleman developed more than 40 vaccines altogether including eight of the 14 that all children get. To put that in context, Paul Offit is comparatively renowned for having created one of those 14 childhood vaccines, the vaccine for rotavirus, and it took him 26 years! Paul Offit was quoted on Radiolab saying that Maurice Hilleman has always been unknown because:

he was humble. As rough as he was and as crude as he could be (laughter) and how – as profane as he could be, he was a humble man. He never promoted himself. So he just always flew below the radar, remarkably enough, given his accomplishments. I honestly think he was the single most-accomplished scientist in history. And when he died, I was at a – I gave a talk at the University of Pittsburgh. His son-in-law called me to say that he had passed away. And then after I heard that news, I walked in among a group of 35 to 50 pediatricians and say, you know, here’s this man, Maurice Hilleman, who just passed away. No one heard of him. No one – zero. And these are pediatricians who give his vaccines.

This is a good time to recognize the success of medical pioneers like Hilleman. For more, see the 1-hour award-winning documentary about Hilleman: A Perilous Quest To Save The World’s Children.


Posted in Millionaire Superheroes

Interest rates are low because of demographic changes and rising corporate power

Greg Mankiw wrote in the NYT about the puzzle of persistently low interest rates. Interest rates have been lower than ever before in history and they have been very low for decades so low interest rates seems to be the new normal. But why? Mankiw gives several plausible theories, but he misses an important one. He writes:

Several hypotheses might explain the decline in the natural rate of interest:

  • As income inequality has risen over the past few decades, resources have shifted from poorer households to richer ones. To the extent that the rich have higher propensities to save, more money flows into capital markets to fund investment.

Mankiw is theorizing that inequality has increased the supply of savings, but it could also increase the demand for savings (borrowing) as poor people increasingly want to borrow.  I haven’t seen evidence one way or the other for this.

  • The Chinese economy has grown rapidly in recent years, and China has a high saving rate. As this vast pool of savings flows into capital markets, interest rates around the world fall.

This was a major influence back from 2004-2010, but China’s external lending has been quite modest since then, so it cannot explain why interest rates are even lower now than they were during the peak of Chinese lending.

  • Events like the financial crisis of 2008 and the current pandemic are vivid reminders of how uncertain life is and may have increased people’s aversion to risk. Their increased precautionary saving and especially their greater demand for safe assets drive down interest rates.

There is no evidence for this. Plus, interest rates were already getting low before the crisis of 2008 and the value of risky assets like stocks has soared since the financial crisis and even the pandemic and this increased appetite for risky assets contradicts the theory.

  • Since the 1970s, average economic growth has slowed, perhaps because of a slower technological advance. A decline in growth reduces the demand for new capital investment, pushing down interest rates.

The timing is all off for this theory. Growth has been low since the 1970s, but interest rates were particularly high during the 1980s.  In theory lower productivity growth should reduce interest rates, so this should be part of the story even though the big-picture timing is off for the correlation.

  • Old technologies, such as railroads and auto factories, required large capital investments. New technologies, like those developed in Silicon Valley, may be less capital-intensive. Reduced demand for capital lowers interest rates.
  • Some economists, most notably the New York University professor Thomas Philippon, have suggested that the economy is less competitive than it once was. Businesses with increasing market power not only raise their prices but also invest less. Again, reduced demand for capital puts downward pressure on interest rates.

These last two theories are both very plausible, but difficult to measure and test.  The last theory is supported by the fact that the stock market has soared and corporate power has been growing. Another piece of supporting evidence for the last theory is this:

Whereas in the early 1980s most of global investment was funded by household saving, nowadays nearly two-thirds of global investment is funded by corporate saving. This shift in the sectoral composition of saving was not accompanied by changes in the sectoral composition of investment.

The dramatic decline in interest rates reduces the incentive to save and should reduce net household saving and increase net household borrowing, so as corporations save more, that will also cause households to save less (and borrow more) by driving down the interest rate.

The theory that Mankiw completely missed is demographic change. As life expectancy increases, that increases household savings rates because people expect to have longer periods in retirement and a longer retirement increases the need for more savings. Meanwhile, it is young households that primarily borrow money for education and house purchases and as population growth has slowed, the percent of the population in that high-borrowing age demographic has shrunken. Finally, a nation with high population growth needs to invest more in expanding roads and infrastructure and school buildings and factories to meet rising demand. As population growth has slowed, investment has also slowed and less borrowing is needed to pay for it. Retired people simply don’t need as many goods and have more time for consuming services and the latter is typically a lot less capital-intensive than manufacturing (which Mankiw characterized as “railroads and auto factories”).

Posted in Macro, Managerial Micro

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