New Monetarists Are Redistributionists

Conservative economists are sometimes stereotyped as being anti-inflation, ‘hard-money‘ Austrians because the Austrians tend to be staunchly conservative.  This is not fair because the Austrian gold-bugs are a very small faction of conservatism compared with the Keynesian conservatives who have had near hegemonic control over official Republican party economic advice.  Unfortunately, both Republican and Democratic politicians ignore their economists whenever it is politically expedient, so the Keynesians (on the right or on the left) have not actually had that much power over economic policy in the Great Recession of 2008.  Another faction of conservative economists is even more ignored by establishment conservatism than the conservative Keynesians: the market monetarists or new monetarists.  They deserve more clout.

These economists have continued to work in the intellectual tradition of the greatest conservative macroeconomist of the 20th century, Milton Friedman.  Friedman is the father of monetarism and his work was so successful that monetarism became part of the standard Keynesian theory.   Brad Delong wrote a history of the two schools and concluded that monetarist policies have dominated Keynesian thought for stabilizing recessions at least since the 1980s.  But Delong is not a self-described monetarist.  He is a Keynesian.  What would a monetarist say?  There aren’t many people who call themselves monetarist anymore and no universities call their perspective monetarist as far as I know.  But there are a few economists who have held on to the monetarist moniker.  One of them that has influenced my thoughts a lot, Nick Rowe, basically agrees with Delong’s perspective:

A Keynesian Rip Van Winkle from the late 1960’s seeing a New Keynesian model would be surprised to see that Friedman’s followers were now calling themselves New Keynesians, and that Friedman had obviously won his war.

Perhaps because the market monetarists are such a small group with no institutional home, they have been ignored by policymakers and the press.  Even the hard-money gold bugs have had more influence in the business press (notably the Wall Street Journal) and in Washington (notably in the Ron-Paul wing of the Republican party).  One reason the market monetarists are marginalized may be that their preferred economic policy seems counter intuitive to the masses and is threatening to the kind of moneyed interests who think lower inflation (a return to the deflationary gold standard even) would help preserve their economic power.

The market monetarists want higher inflation to fight the recession.  Some moneyed interests feel threatened by this (see below) and the masses think that inflation is bad because it is a pain in the butt and workers worry that wages will not keep up with the rise in prices.  But inflation has little impact on real wages which are determined by supply and demand in the labor market, not by the inflation rate.    Higher inflation would help workers more than usual today because the US is in a liquidity trap with zero-short-run interest rates which means that conventional monetary policy is useless for helping unemployed workers.  And inflation has been lower than it usually has been historically, so we have less reason to fear it than in most of history.

The market monetarists think that a recession happens when the supply of loanable funds (savings) is too high relative for the demand for loanable funds (borrowings) and so there is excess savings (hoarding).  They want to lower the real price of loanable funds, the interest rate in order to bring back an equilibrium between the supply of savings and the demand for borrowings.  The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate.  The nominal interest rates for the safest loans are already at zero and cannot go below zero, but if we raised inflation, that would reduce real interest rates further.  And that would tend to reduce real interest rates for everyone.  For obvious reasons, this is not popular with lenders (banks) and savers (elderly) who want higher interest rates.   Because savers tend to be wealthier than borrowers (for obvious reasons), higher inflation would redistribute wealth from a relatively wealthy group to a relatively poor group.

This is undoubtedly one reason why the market monetarists are ignored.  They don’t have the support of the wealthier Americans who have have clout to push a political movement.  They have published no books, have no think tanks, dominate no academic journals, and don’t even have any professional association.  In contrast, the Austrian gold bugs have influence at at least 12 think tanks in the US (listed by George Mason University’s library) and there are more abroad.  The market monetarists are a grass-roots group that was “born out of the blogosphere” which is where it largely remains.  See the excellent blogs written by Scott Sumner, Lars Christensen, Nick Rowe, and David Beckworth for more about market monetarism.

Market Monetarist theory has the same ultimate remedy as the Keynesian theory.  The cure for a recession is to get people spending and the only way to do that is Robin Hood redistribution.  We have to redistribute resources from the (relatively wealthy) people and institutions who are hoarding them to the (relatively poor) people who feel greater spending needs and want to spend.   Government fiscal policy can accomplish this by borrowing money from the hoarders and spending it or by giving money as a tax break to citizens who feel greater a need to spend than the hoarders had.   Monetary policy accomplishes the same kind of redistribution by reducing the reward for hoarding money and increasing the incentive for borrowing and spending it.

Conventional monetary policy works by controlling short-term interest rates.  When there is too much hoarding, the central bank lowers the price of lending  to punish the hoarders and encourage the spenders.  And when the central bank feels like the spenders are buying too much and are driving up prices (inflation), the central bank raises interest rates to increase the incentive to save and reduce the incentive for people who want to borrow and spend.  This is a remarkable level of central planning.  Government intervention in the supply of money to change the rental price of money, the interest rate.  This kind of government control over financial markets deeply disturbs many free-market fundamentalists, but it has been central to capitalism in a big way since the gold standard was largely abandoned during the Great Depression and to some extent, it has been part of capitalism ever since the beginning.

The old monetarists focused on conventional monetary policy which controls the nominal interest rate on short-term government bonds.  That has worked fairly well during the last century except when interest rates hit zero.  This is the simplest definition of a liquidity trap and on the following graph, you can see that it happened during the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2008.

Graph of 3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate

A liquidity trap is a ‘trap’ because the central bank (the Fed) feels trapped.  It cannot use conventional monetary policy to reduce the nominal short-term interest rate below zero.  Since nominal interest rates cannot go below zero, monetarists have focused on ‘unconventional’ monetary policy which has two primary flavors:

1. Reduce long-term and risky interest rates by having the Fed directly lend money in long-term and riskier loanable funds markets.  That would help redistribute income from hoarders to borrowers in loanable funds markets where interest rates are still well above zero.

2. Raise inflation as a way to redistribute resources from people who are hoarding money (relatively wealthy) to people with a propensity to spend it (most of us). An increase in inflation would reduce the real interest rate of all loanable funds markets and reduce the incentive to hold cash.  The market monetarists tend to focus on raising inflation because it has such broad effects across all financial markets, including the desire to hold cash which perhaps the biggest source of hoarding problems during a liquidity trap.   Because short-term interest rates are zero, they are equivalent to keeping cash.  The savers who hoard money in bonds that pay zero percent might as well bury cash in a jar in their yard except that cash in a jar is more likely to get stolen or ruined in a flood than the zero-interest bonds that they hoard.  But the effect on the economy is the same either way.  All money that is hoarded at zero-percent interest rate is effectively taken out of the economy during a liquidity trap.

Of course, not all hoarders are rich even though the median hoarder is a lot richer than the median spender.  The hoarders include most Americans who are retired and it is unfortunate that they should share more of the pain of a recession.  About 14% of Americans are over age 65, and it is unfortunate that their real wealth is threatened by a rise in inflation, but they are not served by high unemployment either.  Ending the recession and lowering unemployment will mean that their future Social Security checks are fully funded and more secure.  And Social Security provides the majority of income for the median American who is eligible for benefits.   Plus, returning to economic growth is the best way to raise real interest rates back up.  A prolonged recession means prolonged low real returns on savings.  It is better for savers to think long run.  They are better off in the long run if they endure a short burst of inflation and get back the higher interest rates that come with the recovery from a recession.

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Posted in Macro

Primer On Macroeconomics Political Divisions

Updated 2018/01/26

Unlike the natural sciences, macroeconomic ideas have implications that can dramatically redistribute wealth.  That makes macroeconomics much more political than the natural sciences (with the exception of climate change) and the left–right political spectrum between progressives and conservatives has created divisions in macroeconomic theory. The media loves to present one dimensional yin-yang news stories with a simple two-sided narrative for every issue.  That false dilemma narrative misrepresents the true nature of academic debates which often have tremendous consensus and multifaceted dimensions.   This is true of policy-oriented macroeconomics which has evolved a tremendous consensus around a Keynesian-monetarist core, but there are multifaceted disagreements all around the periphery of that core.  Simon Wren-Lewis said that, “macroeconomics is often taught as if [political and] ideological influence was non-existent, or at least not important to the development of the discipline. I think doing good social science involves recognising ideological influence, rather than pretending it does not exist.”  This article is an attempt to explain some of the surprising political divisions that influence debates over macroeconomics.

Overall economists are overwhelmingly Keynesian.  Conservative economist Greg Mankiw’s pointed out in 2009 that 90% of economists agree that Keynesian fiscal policy works. Every poll of economists for decades has also shown tremendous consensus about this.  For example, the University of Chicago polled elite economists in 2014 and found that 98% agreed that Obama’s fiscal stimulus worked to reduce unemployment: Fiscal Stimulus Reduced UnemploymentAll of the introductory textbooks teach the same Keynesian economics that yields this conclusion.  The small minority of economists who reject the Keynesian model today are usually either completely focused on a discipline like finance that has nothing to do with  macroeconomics and never teach it (like John Cochrane), or they are Real Business Cycle (RBC) theorists (like Robert Lucas).  The RBC school does have an active research program at prestigious freshwater schools and has been very successful in publishing in top journals, but this school is insular and has rarely engaged with policy makers or with the vast majority of economists who reject RBC.  RBC theorists can’t even teach introductory macroeconomics because none of them have figured out how to explain their theories in English without extremely complex mathematical models and dubious assumptions.  As far as I know, almost all of the freshwater schools that are dominated by RBC theory in their graduate programs still teach Keynesian economics to their undergraduates because that is THE standard in undergraduate education.

Conservative Academic Macroeconomics

On the Right, the macroeconomists involved in government policy and business forecasting are almost all Keynesians,
The Keynesian School:  Conservative Keynesians tend favor tax-cuts whereas liberal macroeconomists tend to be more amenable to increasing government spending and conservative spending priorities tend to be different from those of the Left.  For example, conservative Keynesians are a bit more likely to promote military spending as a stimulus.  This is sometimes called military Keynesianism, and it is also fairly popular on the Left.

Conservative Keynesians have dominated the list of economic policy advisors for every Republican president going back to at least the Ford administration and Republican candidate (post primary) that I can recall. For example, McCain’s chief economic adviser, (Doug Holtz-Eakin) and Romney’s (Glenn Hubbard) were Keynesians as were all of George W. Bush’s and George H.W. Bush’s advisors. Donald Trump has broken somewhat with tradition in that his long list of economic advisors was dominated by Wall Street investors rather than macroeconomists and his chief economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, has macroeconomics ideas that are as almost as hard to pin down as Trump’s.  Hassett was for a Keynesian stimulus during George W. Bush’s administration, and then turned around and was one of the minority (demonstrated by the graph above) who argued against Obama’s Keynesian stimulus even though he simultaneously argued for the Obama administration to directly hire workers which is radically Keynesian.  Hassett’s projections for the stimulative power of Trump’s corporate tax cut are now much greater than the consensus of mainstream economists.  Although Kevin Hassett’s macroeconomics are hard to pin down, he is pretty consistently in favor of deficit-financed tax cuts.   The American Conservative Magazine wrote that,

An astonishing number of the Republicans’ most cherished economic thinkers can be called Keynesians…. What is a conservative Keynesian? While there may not be a formal definition—mainstream Keynesianism has many nuanced variations—it is fair to say that a conservative Keynesian 1.) looks at the world in terms of macroeconomic aggregates, that is, total output, total employment, and most especially aggregate demand; 2.) sees government fiscal policy as a way to improve those aggregates; and 3.) embraces or at least tolerates deficit spending and inflation in the short run. That much is pretty close to standard Keynesianism. What makes one a Keynesian of the Right is a preference for tax cuts over government spending, although the intention is the same: to put money into the hands of consumers as a way to increase aggregate demand during recessions.

The Monetarist School:  Monetarism was a relatively short-lived movement that peaked in the 1970s led by Milton Friedman. Many textbooks still present the 1970’s debate between monetarism and Keynesianism as being unresolved, but the academic debate ended in the 1980s and monetarism substantially ceased to exist as a separate school by the 1990s because Friedman’s band of monetarists won the key points of the debate and their ideas were adopted by Keynesians.  The main legacy of the monetarist movement has been to prioritize monetary policy over fiscal policy for fighting recessions and became more focused on reducing inflation.  Paul Krugman calculated that in the first 15 years after the debate ended, between 1985 and 2000 only five of the 7,000 or so papers published by the National Bureau of Economic Research mentioned fiscal policy in their title or abstract.

In some ways, the ideological split between Keynesianism and Monetarism was never very big.  Keynes’ self-proclaimed followers had been ignoring some of his ideas about monetary policy that Friedman brought back to the fore.  Some textbooks present monetarism as a free-market alternative to Keynesianism, but there really isn’t anything free market about it.  This misconception probably stems from the fact that Milton Friedman happened to be a staunch free-market libertarian, whereas some of the prominent Keynesians that he debated (like Paul Samuelson who famously fought Friedman in Newsweek during the period) happened to be liberals.  Part of Friedman’s motivation was to counter liberal Keynesian calls for government spending stimulus by promoting monetary stimulus instead.  Some libertarians on the right continue to portray Keynesian economics as ‘central planning’ and call fiscal policy ‘socialism’, but they are a small minority and Friedman never thought of monetary policy as a realm that free markets should control.  He recognized that monetarism is a form of central planning in which the government planners at the central bank adjust the quantity of money to control interest rates and inflation.  (Inflation is the most  fundamental price in the economy, the price of money.)

Monetarists wanted to fine-tune interest rates and inflation in order to stabilize the financial sector, unemployment, and economic growth.  The Austrian libertarians reject monetarism and want to return to the gold standard because monetary policy is just as  socialist as fiscal policy.  Under the gold standard, central bankers have less control over monetary policy which is partly controlled by the gold market.  Unfortunately for the libertarian purists, even on the gold standard, central bankers and financial regulators could still assert tremendous control over monetary policy because of the fractional reserve system that used paper money and bank accounts for most money.  Gold was simply a symbolic base.  Central banks (and other big institutions in the financial system) still actively manipulated the money supply under the gold standard and whenever the gold market made movements that they didn’t like, the central bankers just suspended it, so the gold market was never completely in control.

Today there are very few economists who still call themselves monetarists, and those who do tend to have a very strong preference for monetary policy over fiscal policy, but their theories for how monetary policy affects the economy is a standard part of modern Keynesianism.  People who identify as monetarists have always tended to be more conservative than average, but there isn’t anything inherently conservative about monetary policy and libertarians have been trying to figure out how to avoid central banking for well over a century.  This is part of the appeal of crypto-currencies like bitcoin to libertarians.  Crypto-currencies don’t need to be controlled by any central authority unlike all other financial systems of equivalent sophistication.

The Real Business Cycle (RBC) School:  Also known as the “new classical school”, freshwater economics, etc.  This is the biggest academic challenge to Keynesianism and many top graduate schools like the University of Chicago and academic journals (like the journals the University of Chicago publishes) have completely abandoned study of Keynesian economics in favor of RBC macro, but the school didn’t do much study of recessions before the Great Recession of 2008 because RBC only became a major force during the Great Moderation of the mid-1980s until 2008 and there were no big recessions to investigate during this period.

RBC is a utopian form of macroeconomics that created extremely complex mathematical models of the economy that assume the economy is always in an equilibrium where everyone is making the best rational that they possibly can.  Thus, RBC led to the “policy ineffectiveness proposition” which is the idea that monetary and fiscal policy cannot work to stabilize the economy.   RBC models usually assume that monetary policy has zero effect on the real economy!   This is an utter rejection of monetarism which is surprising because the University of Chicago was the ground zero of monetarism in the 1970s under the leadership of Milton Friedman.  Friedman must be rolling in his grave with the knowledge that his former school has so utterly rejected his macroeconomics.  RBC mainly gained ascendance for aesthetic reasons.  It seemed to integrate microeconomics and macroeconomics.  It uses complex, but elegant math.  It was more consistent with the ethos in microeconomics at the time that assumed people are rational actors.

But it is also appealing for people who like the idea that markets naturally self-correct because it rejects the idea that a recession is a form of market failure.  Some RBC models also gave some support to the idea of Ricardian equivalence which is the theory that fiscal policy has no effect on aggregate demand.  Ricardian equivalence relies on false assumptions and is overwhelmingly contradicted by empirical research, but somehow it became fashionable in some RBC circles  and once the Great Recession of 2008 happened, many prominent politicians and pundits (and very few economists) twisted it into a rationale for austerity and it morphed into a sort of “Austerian School” that became prominent in the popular press (see below).

Some RBC scholars are libertarians who believe that recessions are natural and inevitable and that government policy changes can only make them worse. Others are just ivory-tower geeks who love the math and don’t care about policy and politics

Austerian School (or liquidationists): These are terms of derision for Austrians and some RBC economists who think that the government should fight the recession through the opposite of Keynesian (and monetarist) policies.  Austerity is reducing deficits and the money supply and austerians prescribe the exact opposite of the Keynesian recommendations.

There is nothing inherent about RBC models to support the idea that austerity can reduce recessions, but the RBC models are flexible and can yield wide-ranging results.  The Austrian School (Hayek and Schumpeter) promoted austerity during the Great Depression, but they lost credibility because of it and Hayek completely abandoned his work on macroeconomics as a result.

Austerians often employ a traditionally Keynesian argument about confidence to give anti-Keynesian conclusions. They argue that recessions happen when people lose confidence due to worries about government inability to pay back government debts and worries about inflation.  They think that if governments cut spending and reduce the money supply (to reduce inflation), people will regain confidence and start buying again and increase aggregate demand. Austerity has had wide populist appeal outside of the economics profession and although only a very small percentage of economists are Austerians, the ideology was popular among some of the leaders of elite institutions like the European Central Bank, the Bank of International Settlement, and the OECD during the early years of the Great Recession.

There is no formal economic model that supports the austerian view.  It is not part of mainstream RBC academic theories.  It was mainly an ad-hoc position that arose in response to the Great Recession of 2007.  A couple of academic papers got a huge amount of press and political attention during the Great Recession for claiming to find empirical support for expansionary austerity, but they were all discredited when the authors allowed their data to be examined by peer review.

Centrist Independent Macroeconomics

Centrist academics are mostly Keynesians although there are also RBC scholars who just don’t care about politics and macroeconomic policy and just want to be left alone to do their work on their research that they love.  The business economists who do macroeconomic forecasting for private industry are all Keynesians.  RBC doesn’t even try to compete in the private sector.

Liberal Academic Macroeconomics

On the left, academic macroeconomics is a bit more dominated by Keynesians than on the right, but the left has different priorities.

Keynesian School:   Liberal Keynesians are more favorably predisposed to government spending than conservative Keynesians who are more likely to favor tax cuts as an economic stimulus.  There are a lot of sub-categories of Keynesians on the left, but their policies tend to be broadly similar:

Neo-Keynesian, Old-Keynesian, or Neoclassical Keynesian:  This was mainstream macroeconomics from 1936-1980 that used simple the simple models that we still teach in undergraduate education based on things like AS-AD, Hicks’ IS-LM model, and the Phillips curve.
New-Keynesian: Use the complicated new mathematical modelling techniques developed by RBC, but add ‘frictions’ like sticky prices to get very similar results as the old Keynesians. They use completely different mathematical models and come to very similar conclusions.
Post-Keynesians: I don’t get why they think they are different, but they are more liberal than the mainstream and it seems to be a way for some liberal economists to signal their identify a bit like the monetarist label for some conservative economists.
Monetarist Keynesians:  Liberal economists usually don’t call themselves monetarists, but Friedman won the intellectual debates over the role of monetary policy and almost all liberal economists embrace monetarist solutions as the primary tool for macroeconomic management.  Keynes himself supported monetary stimulus, so It seems odd that there was ever an intellectual divide back in the 1970s between conservative-leaning monetarists and liberal-leaning Keynesians.

Agnostic-Apathetic ‘School’:  There are a few economists on the left who simply have little opinion about macroeconomic debates because they did not study recessions in graduate school.   They either chosen to ignore macro in favor of micro or they believed that recessions are not important in comparison with  studying economic growth, international trade, or finance.  I would put Jeffrey Sachs in this camp.  He is a brilliant liberal development economist who wrote stupid things about the recession because he clearly did not put much thought into it.  His priorities simply lie elsewhere.  Unfortunately,  Obama had economic advisers who are in this camp like Jack Lew and Tim Geithner, but they were not economists.  They were Wall Street elites.  They went along with calls for austerity because they thought it was politically popular and they did not prioritize fighting unemployment.  The big ideological divide in the Obama administration was between the Keynesians at his Council of Economic Advisors and the Wall Street types who didn’t care much about macroeconomics who Obama put in charge of the Treasury.

Macroeconomics ideology at PhD-level education and research

PhD programs became divided in the 1970s, first between old Keynesians and monetarists and later between Keynesians and RBC.  I have never fully understood the old Keynesian-monetarist debate because the two ‘schools’ are so integrated today that I have a hard time imagining why there was ever significant debate between the two.  Keynes himself had monetarist ideas and the principle monetarist, Milton Friedman had written, “We are all Keynesians now.”  Friedman wrote that in 1965, which was before the word monetarism had even been coined.  He recognized that there was validity in Keynesianism, but macroeconomics is always imperfect and he did a lot to improve Keynesian thought.

Then in the 1980s, RBC began to displace Keynesian AND monetarism in freshwater PhD programs like the University of Chicago and the University of Wisconsin.  These programs have a reputation for being conservative, but many liberals also graduated from these programs and followed the RBC research program which isn’t inherently political.  Paul Krugman coined the term ‘freshwater economics’ to describe these inland schools where RBC displaced Keynesianism because the coastal schools, including most of the Ivy League, continued to teach Keynesian macro.  These so-called saltwater schools were not much more liberal than the freshwater schools and they produced most of the conservative economists who went on to run economic policy for the Republican party (mentioned above).

Politicians ignored the freshwater (RBC) economists because they said that government policy is ineffective at best or counterproductive at worst.   It was only natural for politicians to ignore the freshwater economists who said that there are no answers to our macroeconomic problems when there were many prestigious saltwater economists who claimed that they did have answers.

Whereas few undergraduate macroeconomics textbooks even try to explain RBC, there are two RBC graduate-school macro texts written by Ljungqvist, & Sargent and by Stokey, Lucas & Prescott.  There are also some New Keynesian graduate texts that also teach RBC because RBC is generally just a simplified version of New Keynesian models.

The Austrian Business Cycle theory is “now rarely discussed by mainstream economists, but was actively debated” in academia before the Great Depression demolished the theory.  Even its most revered scholar, Friedrich Hayek, gave up on working on it after the Depression.  Austrian theory is still important in popular culture because of libertarian supporters who get a lot of media coverage.  One libertarian group spent big bucks producing a pair of rap videos to try to boost its importance in grass-roots culture.

This theory is sometimes known as the hangover theory because recessions are caused by excessive and unsound investment during a boom. Recessions are necessary way to liquidate the excess capital stock and should be welcomed.  This may have been where President Herbert Hoover and his Secretary of the Treasury, Andrew Mellon got their theory that it was productive to “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate .… It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life.”

One of the major problems with the Austrian theory is that it predicts that, “people will work harder” during a recession.  It fails to explain unemployment.  If a recession were caused by an excess of capital, then demand for workers should increase during a recession rather than decrease, at least in large sectors of the economy.

The Austrian theory was an advance over the classical view of economics in which recessions were impossible, but it agreed with the classical view that there is no point trying to use fiscal and monetary policy to fight recessions because in the Austrian view, a recession is a good thing that must continue until the excess capital and unproductive businesses are destroyed so that, in Hoover’s words, “enterprising people [can] pick up the wrecks from less competent people.”

There are still libertarians who ascribe to this philosophy.  For example, President Trump’s chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow welcomed the Great Recession, writing as the economy was beginning to crash in 2008: “Recessions are therapeutic. They cleanse excess from the economy. Think about excessive risk speculation, leverage, and housing. Recessions are curative: They restore balance and create the foundation for the next recovery.”

At the PhD level, the last university in the world that focused on Austrian theories was Auburn University, but it’s PhD program was disbanded in 1999 and they apparently did not put much stock in Austrian macroeconomics because they didn’t have anyone who taught macroeconomics!  The Austrians agree with many of the conclusions of the RBC theorists.  Both schools think that recessions are naturally the best of all possible worlds and nothing can or should be done to try to lessen them.  But the Austrians reject RBC theory because they dislike the mathematical methods of RBC.  Austrians tend to favor the gold standard which is something that the RBC economists reject.

Macroeconomic ideology in undergraduate education

Almost all of the undergraduate textbooks present the standard Keynesian-monetarist synthesis whether they are written by a conservative Republican like Ben Bernanke or a liberal Democrat like Robert Frank.  Oh wait.  Those guys co-authored the same textbook which presents roughly the same Keynesian-monetarist synthesis as the top-selling text by conservative former adviser to Bush and Romney, Greg Mankiw (who named his dog Keynes) and the text by liberal lightening-rod Paul Krugman.  The only alternative to the textbook consensus comes from Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory, but it only appears in very few textbooks that haven’t sold well.  As mentioned above, RBC has been very successful among some top economics researchers in PhD programs, but it never made much headway in the undergraduate education even at the RBC schools because it is too mathematical for undergraduates to comprehend.  It takes a PhD to think you understand RBC, but even the PhDs have not really understood how to apply their own models.  The math was just so complex that they did not completely understand their own theories and the entire RBC agenda fell apart during the 2008 recession.

My first Macroeconomics prof in grad school, Paul Peiper, was a Keynesian who often said that you should be able to explain your mathematical model in plain English to a smart undergraduate and if you can’t then you probably don’t understand your own model well enough.  I suspect he was thinking about RBC theorists who simply cannot explain their models to undergraduates.

The old Keynesian stories about the economy always made empirical sense and can be explained to undergraduates, so RBC was never able to displace Keynesianism in undergraduate education.  New Keynesian models are built on the same kind of math as RBC, but they produce the same results as the old Keynesian stories so there was no need to change the textbooks.

A conservative website I read asked for examples of conservative economics texts, and readers submitted suggestions for about 30 popular books, and two graduate-level RBC texts (mentioned above), but not a single undergraduate macroeconomics textbook.  Both conservative and liberal economists mostly teach Keynesian macroeconomics to undergraduates.

Some undergraduate textbooks mention “supply-side economics,” but that isn’t an academic school at all.  It is a political movement that gained momentum in the 1970s based on Arthur Laffer’s resurrection of the idea that cutting taxes would create so much growth in aggregate supply that it would pay for itself and increase revenues.  If you search the primary academic journal archive at Jstor, you will not find any references to a “supply-side school” or even “supply-side economists” except in commenting on the popular political movement.

This supply-side idea was also once promoted by Keynesians who influenced JFK’s tax cuts in the 1960s (from a top income tax rate of 91% down to 70%) and Keynesians still have a similar theory that a tax cut during a recession can restore economic growth enough to more than pay for itself if the multiplier is big enough.  Conservative Keynesians often make this argument and it was the basis for George Bush’s tax rebate checks in 2008. The difference between the Keynesian theory and the supply-side theory is that in the Keynesian theory, tax cuts stimulate aggregate demand during recessions by reducing hoarded savings whereas the supply-siders think tax cuts always cause an increase in aggregate supply (productivity) by making people work a lot more hours and create more capital.  Also Keynesian economists predict that tax cuts would only boost the economy during a recession and supply-side activists always predict that it would be good for the economy, even during an economic boom.  Very, very few academic economists subscribe to this core supply-side idea.

Macroeconomic media bias: “Mediamacro”

Most of the general public develops an understanding of science from the popularizers of science like Steven Hawking and Neil deGrasse Tyson because very few people get a science degree.  But at least most people formally study basic science in high school and college graduates get at least a couple classes.  Only a tiny minority has ever had even a single macroeconomics course at any level and most people develop their understanding of economics from popularizers in the mass media who are disproportionately hacks.

Whereas interest groups ignore most scientific disciplines with a few exceptions like global warming and medicine, moneyed interests have taken a great interest in economics and injected hacks into popular discussions.

Simon Wren-Lewis calls the mainstream media’s view of macro, “mediamacro.” The media had particular biases during the 2008 crisis.  For example, the media was much more austerian than either the general public or the economics profession.  The media loves to oversimplify and use inappropriate moral analogies like to say that the government needs to be less lazy and borrow less money so that we don’t put a debt burden on our children.  Big media is also biased towards the opinions of powerful business people who buy advertisements, and own media companies.  The media is also overly enamored with the opinions of Wall-Street tycoons who have never studied macroeconomics.

Controversial ideas sell more advertisements than consensus, so the media likes to promote provocative macroeconomic hacks rather than the the boring consensus that readers could get in any textbook or even on Wikipedia. The media likes crazy ideas because crazy people are interesting and the media likes to tell simple narratives about 2-sided debates. If the media cannot find enough debate among PhD economists, they will try to find someone else, even if they have to find a madman.  Crazy people certainly say interesting things that can be fun to watch.  Anyone can call himself an economist and most of the ‘economists’ on the TV news are not qualified to teach undergraduate economics because they do not have any economics degree.  And when the media does interview someone with an actual economics degree, there is a bias towards interviewing economists who work for an interest group whose job is to seek media influence unlike academics.

That is how the gold standard gets so much attention in the media despite almost zero support from economists.  Less than 1% of PhD economists think that the gold standard is better than our current system (and most of them probably went to Auburn University, mentioned above), but the press loves the gold standard because it is interesting and simple.  The media loves opposing viewpoints so they can claim “balance” so they present madmen arguing for the gold standard to “balance” against some boring guy representing the entire economics profession who thinks it is a terrible system.  Media bias helps explain why 44% of Americans think a return to the gold standard would be a good idea.

The media likes to tell stories about conflict between two sides of any issue.  More than two sides gets too complicated for the narratives that they try to create, so they tend to engineer simplistic narratives that are more entertaining than the difficult complexities of reality.  In the most simplified (and unrealistic) media narrative, the liberals are Keynesians who support government spending and the conservatives are anti-Keynesians who support business interests by shrinking the deficit.  This is a misleading narrative that contains only the tiniest grain of reality.  Macroeconomics is political, but the true ideologies of the various factions are more complex.

Two main reasons for the political divisions in macroeconomics:

1. Macroeconomic policies divide classes and create winners and losers.

Monetarist policies would raise inflation and lower real interest rates during recessions which hurts savers (richer and older) and benefits borrowers (poorer and younger).  Keynesian deficit policies tend to worry the wealthy more than the middle class because the wealthy are hurt less by high unemployment and they pay a disproportionate amount of the taxes that will eventually repay the deficits.  Plus, Keynesian expansionary policies require redistributing resources from the class of people who are prone to hoard (richer and older) to people who want to spend (poorer and younger).

2. People have different ideologies about how the world works. 

Keynesian-monetarist ideas assume that mass unemployment is due to a massive market failure.  A minority of economists dislike the very idea of market failure because it is messy and unaesthetic.  A few have an almost religious faith in the benevolence of markets. Economic elites also tend to dislike the idea of market failure because if markets can fail, then some of their wealth may be due to market failure.  Business elites tend to like the ideology that perfect markets have rewarded them efficiently.  It is a justification for their wealth and power over others.  Under perfect markets, wealth would be a perfect reward for contributions to society.

Macroeconomic Political Divide Summary

There is no simple way explain the ideological macroeconomic divisions between Republicans and Democrats.  The top-level economic  advisers in both parties have been almost exclusively Keynesians all the way back to WWII. But politicians just do not listen to their economic advisers when it comes to making economic policy. Austerians have had tremendous anti-Keynesian influence over both parties despite not holding official positions of authority.  Ever since 2008 when the economic stimulus package was passed, both parties have been austerian.  For example, Obama raised taxes as part of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) so it would reduce the deficit and has been trying to raise taxes on the wealthy.  That is austerian, not Keynesian.  Similarly, the Republicans have been trying to cut social spending, and the Democrats seem to have been happy to let government spending decrease (as a fraction of our total income) since the beginning of 2009.

On the monetary policy side, Obama neglected to appoint Fed board members for months because he was shockingly apathetic about monetary policy.  The Republican leadership criticized the Fed for trying to help reduce unemployment by expanding the money supply which was a rejection of Milton Friedman’s conservative monetarist ideas. Both parties displayed austerian monetary policy priorities.

Today there is no significant academic division between monetarists and Keynesians.  The big ideological divide in academic macroeconomics is between both of them and the RBC economists who make radically different predictions.  The RBC school thinks that the government cannot (or should not) do anything to help recover from recessions and RBC doesn’t suggest that there is any problem with austerity so some RBC scholars like the idea of austerity for various other reasons. What little monetarist-Keynesian ideological divide still exists is mostly one of priority.  Economists who call themselves Keynesians generally put more priority on fiscal stimulus and think that works better than monetary stimulus, particularly when interest rates are near zero.  The few economists who still call themselves monetarists put more priority on monetary stimulus and think that quantitative easing works better than fiscal stimulus.  But most mainstream Keynesians endorse what used to be called monetarist ideas back in the 1970s.

There are a lot of self-taught Austerians who oppose the Keynesian-monetarist synthesis, but they are rarely qualified to teach undergraduate economics classes.  In academic macroeconomics, only the RBC school has been a significant challenge to Keynesianism.  Although the RBC vision has enchanted many bright academics, they had kept themselves withdrawn from policy discussions in their ivory-towers since according to RBC theory, policy either has no effect or certainly doesn’t help.  They remained isolated from the challenging ideas of the world outside during the Great Moderation until the crisis of 2008 finally brought them challenges that they could not ignore.

Because Keynesian-monetarist policies are likely to improve the plight of the median American, I support this academic consensus.  Keynesian policies should benefit both the needy (unemployed) and the median.  Massive unemployment and idle capital is a tragic waste and we should use all effective tools to reduce the suffering.  This should not be controversial.  It is the textbook consensus that almost every college student learns in Principles of Macroeconomics.  It is amazing to me how the media and both parties conspired to produce austerianism which is the polar opposite of the macroeconomics taught in the college textbooks.

Posted in Macro

Australian Economic Miracle?

Matt Yglesias at Slate’s Moneybox has been focusing on Australia’s two-decades without a recession because:

The fact that a living breathing developed economy seems to have mastered the trick of avoiding spells of mass unemployment should be a bigger story than it is.

Wrong!  Yglesias misses a big story. Australian mass unemployment has been terrible during the first half of this period and for almost three decades in total.  From 1975 until the early 2000s, Australian unemployment averaged 7.5% and during the recession of the early 1990s, it reached close to 11%!  That is worse than the US has ever had since the Great Depression.

Graph of Adjusted Unemployment Rate in Australia

The reason Yglesias missed this is understandable.  He has fallen into the cult of GDP mutilitarianism.  Instead of looking at how people at the bottom of the labor force are doing (the unemployed) or at how people at the median of the economy are doing, he looks at the aggregate income and concludes that it is a miracle.

Unfortunately, it is hard to find median income statistics for Australia,* but by more common measures, the Australian economy done very well during the past decade and their unemployment rate has improved markedly from the dismal situation they had in the early 1990s.  But halfway through the period that Yglesias sees as so remarkable, Australians still thought of themselves as an economic basket case due to persistent high unemployment. See Joanne Loundes’ paper [pdf] for a brief history of Australia’s problem with unemployment.

Perhaps Australia’s decades of enormous unemployment created the political will necessary to use better monetary policy during the past 15 years than you see in most other rich countries.  Yglesias is right that their monetary policy seems to have prioritized unemployment over inflation more than elsewhere recently.  But in the historical context, this is understandable.  The lesson from Australia may be that it takes three decades of terrible unemployment to create the political will to finally do anything about it.

 

*According to a graph at Seeking Alpha, Australia has been a big success since the mid nineties in median income growth.

Posted in Macro

Why are US Health Care Costs So High?

The US healthcare system is notable for its extremely high costs compared with all other countries, and poor results compared with other rich countries.  But the US also has the most unequal healthcare system and our poor outcome statistics are averages that are pulled down by people closer to the bottom of the distribution who get lower quality care here than they would in any other rich nation where there is universal health insurance.   So, does our system do well for the median American?

Unfortunately, our national priorities nearly ignore the median and fail to collect this information, so we will have to guess.  The US system clearly gives the median American very low benefit for the cost compared with other rich countries.  The median American pays regressive taxes to pay for healthcare (notably the payroll tax) and pays for expensive private health insurance on top of that.  In almost all rich nations, the amount the median American pays for health taxes would be less AND private expenditure would be MUCH less.

The median American has a high probability of losing health insurance at some point in life and no other rich country allows health costs to bankrupt families.  Medical expenses contribute to the majority of personal bankruptcies in the US.  Our system also provides less preventative care than most rich countries. This is often claimed to be a reason for our high costs, but I tend to think that preventative care does not save any money in the long run.  We all have to die sometime and when we get old, our illnesses and health expenses inevitably rise.  Preventing one disease just means that you will get sick and die from something else eventually.  But I am a huge fan of preventative care because it is the most cost effective way to raise health care quality.  There is no cheaper way to raise life expectancy.  But that just means that you will get sick with something expensive when you are 90 rather than when you are 70 and I have seen zero evidence that living longer reduces total health expenditures.  But who cares.  The whole point of health expenditures is to be able to live longer, healthy lives.

So why are US healthcare costs so high?  The main reason is that we have less government price controls than in other rich countries.  This directly reduces prices, and it reduces administrative costs.  The US has much higher administrative (billing) costs than other rich countries.  Probably the biggest reason is because there are different prices charged for different people to get the same treatment in the US.  There is constant negotiation over complex health pricing.  Buying healthcare is not like buying a gallon of milk with a clearly marked price tag.  Even mechanics give price estimates, but it is hard to get doctors to provide a price estimate on a caesarean section operation because they want to charge different prices to different people.  The extra haggling over variable prices raises our administrative costs.  In other rich countries, governments typically set price controls which means there is less negotiation and more price transparency.

Economists typically abhor price controls because of worries that they will cause shortages.  Does that happen in healthcare?  Not shortages of doctors.  Despite price controls in other rich countries, the US has fewer doctors per person than most, and fewer hospital beds per person.  Whereas the US does have more of some high-tech treatments like MRIs, our average health outcomes are fairly bad compared with most rich countries (as a new study in JAMA shows).  And some of our more abundant health ‘care’ is unnecessary and harmful.  We do far too many tonsillectomies and caesarean sections than is good for our health.

Critics of price controls point to Medicaid for evidence of how price controls create shortages.  Medicaid pays less than almost any other kind of insurance and so about a third of doctors refuse to treat patients on Medicaid, and many doctors claim that they lose money on their Medicaid patients.  They say that they only treat Medicaid patients because of being charitable.  Only 16% of Americans are covered by Medicaid, and doctors say they can afford this small amount of charity care, but that it should not be expanded.  Medicaid prices are actually higher than what doctors get paid in most other countries, so what would happen if all Americans were given free universal Medicaid insurance?  Would there be a even bigger doctor shortage because there would be less doctor charity to spread around?  I doubt it because it did not happen in other countries.  A few of the wealthiest patients might pay for more expensive treatment out of pocket or buy supplemental insurance for fancier care.  That has happened in other countries too, but very few people choose to spend the extra money beyond what the public universal system provides.  Most people prefer to get free care even if it sometimes means waiting lists in some places.  The market for high-paying customers would shrink and doctors would simply have to get by with lower incomes as they do in every other country.  People who do not like the free services are welcome to pay for better service, but almost everyone goes with the standard package.

You might then worry about doctors quitting and becoming real-estate agents, but it is doubtful that doctors could make as much money in any other occupation as they could make treating Medicaid patients full time.  And the incoming supply of doctors would not shrink because it it not determined by supply and demand anyhow.  The supply of doctors is mainly controlled by the doctor ‘union’ that controls medical licensing with government enforcement.  If the government wanted to increase the supply of doctors, it could easily do so.  The government already pays for most of the cost of medical school (directly through subsidies or indirectly by paying patient fees).  In a Medicaid-for-all world where lower prices reduce doctor incomes, there would be different selection pressures on who would become doctors.  There might be less competition for medical school openings, but it isn’t clear that the quality would go down significantly.  Some of the people going to medical school for the money rather than for saving lives might decide to go work on Wall Street instead, but they do not make the best doctors anyhow even if they are smart.  They are the US doctors who are performing excessive (and harmful) caesarean sections and tonsillectomies for extra profits.  Doctors would need less business savvy with set prices and could focus more on medicine rather than on pricing and billing.

I don’t believe that the main motivation for doctors to treat Medicaid patients is charity.  Doctors don’t give that much of their income away in other contexts, and when Medicaid reimbursement rates change, doctors don’t suddenly adjust their other giving to make up for the change in ‘charity’ that they claim to give Medicaid patients.  Most doctors profitably treat Medicaid patients for the same reason that airlines profitably sell some economy tickets for less than a fifth the price of their most expensive seats: price discrimination.  If airlines can fill up their seats for more than their marginal cost, then it is profitable.  The same is true for hotel beds.  The same hotel room can sometimes cost $100 and other times cost $300 but the hotel does not rent rooms cheaply out of charity.  It is better to earn a little money from the room than no money.  The same is true of medical beds.  The best way to make money is to always keep them full.  For most doctors, that means accepting some Medicaid patients sometimes.

Given the above evidence, the median person in other rich countries probably gets slightly better health outcomes overall and the median American certainly pays much, much more money for care and has a greater chance of medical bankruptcy and other financial stress.  So the US could improve our health system by learning how other countries are getting such good outcomes for so little cost.  Obamacare/Romneycare are two such attempts, but another alternative would be Medicaid for all.  That would work and it would be simpler, but more radical.

Posted in Health

“Statistics make smart people smarter, and dumb people dumber.”

Mark Twain famously said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

I would counter that it is much harder to lie using statistics than without statistics because statistics are so precise and easier to verify than other kinds of information.  Statistics are quantifiable and it is much easier to lie using vague qualitative assertions.  Most people are more influenced by anecdotes than by statistics anyhow even though the reverse should be true.  Liars can come up with an anecdote to support any position and a personal story is much more persuasive for most people than a statistic.  It is much harder to find and manipulate statistics that support lies.  Mark Twain’s famous quote reveals more about his own ignorance than about the truthfulness of statistics.  I would say that statistics make smart people smarter, and dumb people dumber.*  The problem with statistics is in knowing how to interpret them and understanding their limitations.  If you can do that, then statistics can only make you smarter because they reduce uncertainty about the world.  Statistics add information even if it is a limited kind of information that is hard to interpret.  Ignorant people interpret statistics wrong and then blame the statistics.  They feel lied to.

That is why it is important to understand the statistics we use for measuring economic progress, which is principally GDP.  The Great Recession that started in 2007 officially ended half way through 2009 because GDP started growing again.    Most Americans felt like this was incorrect because the median income kept dropping for two more years.  Americans felt like the statistics were lying because they did not understand what the GDP statistics meant.  Income growth among elites was strong in the latter half of 2009 which meant that total income (GDP) was rising even though most Americans’ incomes were still falling.

This ignorance of statistics is pervasive.  Even most economists seem to be unaware that they are misleading the average American by claiming that American income is growing.  Most economists are either ignorant or apathetic about the wellbeing of the average American and the misuse of GDP statistics can indeed make ignorant economists act even more ignorantly than they would act without the statistic.  The problem is not that the statistic lies, but that people unwittingly lie when they interpret it.

No measure is perfectly precise, and people need to be aware of its limitations when interpreting it.  Statistics are less precise (and have larger margins of error) than the kinds of direct physical measurements often used in physics, but all measurements have uncertainty.  Knowing the limitations of our knowledge is just as important as acquiring knowledge itself.  As Will Rodgers said, “It isn’t what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.”   When people are ignorant of the limitations of statistics, they make dumb conclusions.

But the bigger problem is that most people ignore statistics and just go with their feelings which are animated by stories, not statistics.  For example, which is more emotional for you to read:

  1. My 67-year-old neighbor, Fred, died of prostate cancer yesterday while surrounded by his three kids.
  2. Every day, on average, 90 Americans are dying of prostate cancer this year.

The second piece of information should carry more weight for you, but it probably doesn’t and it isn’t even very engaging compared with the anecdotes (especially on video) that social marketers expert at using to manipulate your emotions which motivate your behavior.  That is why anecdotes are the lies that I worry about most.

*Surprisingly, according to Google, nobody has ever written the title of this post before, but the phrase “_BLANK_ makes smart people smarter, and dumb people dumber” has been attributed to lots of other things: the internet, age, etc.

UPDATE: For an example, see: Lies (or Stupidity), Damned Lies (or Stupidity), and Statistics

Posted in MELI & Econ Stats, Philosophy and ethics

Libertarians Often Care About Millionaires More Than The Median

Today Tyler Cowen writes that “Singapore is inequality on steroids” and he notes how inequality is causing increasing segregation and rising indebtedness due to exorbitant car and housing prices, but he is a big fan of the Singapore model.  He has praised Singaporean food, its health system, and its government.  But he never even questions whether the policies that created this inequality should be changed.  Instead of wondering how the median Singaporean is doing he wonders, “At what level of wealth is inequality no longer a moral or practical problem?”

Cowen has also been linking to Scott Sumner’s writings about Singeaporean inequality.  To Sumner, Singapore is great because Singapore is rich.  That does not mean that the median Singaporean is rich, it means that an incredible 17% of Singaporean households are millionaires!  He says that the US should strive to increase our number of millionaires too and he worries that “the number of millionaires in the US declined” from 2010 to 2011.  But let’s think about what else happened in this time period in the US.  Mean income increased and median income decreased.  If the median household was getting poorer, and the millionaire households were getting fewer, but overall (mean) income was growing, then all the growth was probably going to the super rich from 2010 to 2011.  Sumner is worried about the welfare of US millionaires at a time when the median household income has had zero real growth in almost two decades.

Cowen and Sumner have bizarre values.  They put more priority on the rich than on the median.  A search for “median income” on Cowen’s site reveals that he thinks stagnant median income is a natural result of increased information technology and trade with China which are both trends that Cowen likes.  He often brings up stagnating median income as part of his Great Stagnation idea, but I have never seen him propose ways of helping the median.  The same search on Scott Sumner’s site finds him claiming “income distribution data is meaningless.”  ¡¿Inequality is meaningless? Another post notes that median income has been declining, but I didn’t find any post where he suggests that this could be as big a priority as his obsession: GDP.

Libertarianism is relatively popular among wealthy elites, but very few of the rest of us can get enamored with it.  Maybe if libertarians had more interest in the economic well being of the majority it could become a more popular ideology.

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Posted in Medianism

Is High CEO Pay Good For The Median?

Alex Tabarrock is a libertarian whose political ideology tends to support higher income for the elites.  For example, he writes:

Steven Ballmer announced today that he would retire. Microsoft stock shot up immediately …an increase in value of about $18 billion dollars. Of course that’s embarrassing for Ballmer but the lesson cuts both ways. If Ballmer’s exit and replacement with an unknown is worth $18 billion then hiring the right CEO at $27 million annually, the average annual pay for the 100 highest paid CEOs in America, looks like a bargain. Small differences are a big deal for large corporations, you know like a marginal… something or other.

Ballmer Retirement

This is a striking market shift. It is true that the markets seem to have judged Ballmer to be such a failure that anyone that Microsoft could hire to replace him is preferred to the tune of $18 billion.  But Tabarrock implies that the $18 billion market judgement is evidence of the marginal productivity of CEOs.  That isn’t true.  The $18B is evidence of the coercive power of a CEO, not his productivity.  The investors who own Microsoft have judged that Ballmer’s presence has been suppressing the stock value by $18Bb, but the owners have not been able to do anything about it.  Instead of firing Ballmer, the owners of Microsoft have been forced to wait until he voluntarily quit.
A CEO’s job is clearly important because it is the embodiment of tremendous coercive power, but it isn’t clear how much a CEO actually produces for the organization because we cannot measure a CEO’s production independently of the organization.  A CEO can always suppress stock value just like a terrorist could blow up a company’s stock value.  A CEO may even have the power to drive a company bankrupt, but that is not a measure of CEO productivity.  It is a measure of coercive power.
Because of the power inherent in the position of CEO, it is crucial to get a productive person in the job, but there is no evidence that it takes millions of dollars get a productive CEO.  Ballmer is an excellent example of this.  Shareholders should have been willing to pay Ballmer billions of dollars to quit, but instead of cutting his salary, they have been paying him around $1,377,000 per year to stay in the job.  Why have they been paying him millions over the years if they think he is subtracting billions of dollars from Microsoft profits?  CEO’s like Ballmer extract money from companies like a terrorist would.  They use their coercive power to extract wealth.
Tabarrock implies that the Microsoft CEO must have a marginal productivity worth at least $18B, but his work would be worth nothing without the other people at Microsoft working under his power.  Every single job in a large organization could be claimed to have extremely high marginal productivity because all jobs are interdependent within an organization.  Similarly all the organs of your body are interdependent and each organ could claim that they actually produce the majority of your body’s marginal productivity.  Your brain could claim that it has tremendous marginal productivity because without your brain, your body is unproductive.  But the same could be said for your heart, liver, skin, bones, or any other major organ.  No organ gets paid more resources than the very minimum it needs to function.
The different parts of the body of a large corporation work together in the same way.  If any job consistently fails to get done, the organization gets sick and is likely to die.  For example, if a mid-level Microsoft accountant went on strike, and nobody else was allowed to do his job, he could easily suppress Microsoft stock by $18B.  That never happens because no accountant has enough power to neglect his duties without someone else stepping in, but it is only the fact that the accountant does not have the power of a CEO to sabotage the organization that prevents the stock value from suddenly changing $18B when an accountant quits.  If the janitors at Microsoft had the power to keep anyone else from doing their work, then the janitors could cause Microsoft stock to fall.  It would be hard to get good employees to work in unclean offices with unsanitary bathrooms.  Customers would shy away too.  But janitors don’t have the power to sabotage the company like a CEO can.
So the fact that CEOs produce bigger stock movements janitors is not because CEOs are more productive than the janitors.  It is because the janitors (and accountants, etc.) don’t have enough coercive power in the organization to be able to sabotage Microsoft stock values.

Tabarrock’s mention of “marginal… something or other” is a reference to the marginal productivity theory of wages.  That theory has a long history of use to justify inequality.  CEOs and other elites love marginal productivity theory because it claims that people are paid exactly what they are contribute to society.  So CEOs must contribute a lot if they are paid a lot.  That theory is wrong, but even if it were correct, it would mean that people create zero net value for society at the margin.  The true lesson of marginal productivity theory should be that the only way to contribute to society is to produce more than you are paid.  The true measure of your value to society is how much you give, not how much you receive.

If there was evidence that enormous American CEO pay gives benefit to the median American (by increasing productivity spillovers), then I would be all for it, but nobody has even tried to show evidence to support that idea.  Inequality is only good if it produces good results for non-elites too.  Elites already have natural tendency to think they are superior to the rest of us.  Don’t inflate their sense of entitlement with fantasies of immense productivity that justifies inequality and increases corruption.
Posted in Medianism

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