#Pence2018: Because Trump makes everyone else look good

Saturday Night Live’s opening skit last night featured George W. Bush feeling great about how most Americans are nostalgic for his presidency even though his term was pretty disastrous. He reminds us that we are still involved with two wars that he started as well as the housing bubble & crash and worst the recession since the Great Depression. But we are all nostalgic for Bush’s leadership because his behavior in his first year was much better than Trump’s and if the rise in popular mandate that Bush got from 9/11 hadn’t given him such a large boost in political power, he probably would have avoided some of the worst excesses of his presidency.

Power corrupts. Imagine if Trump’s popular power were boosted by a terrorist attack. What would he do with all of his newfound political power? Bush used the 9/11 attack to launch a completely unrelated war in Iraq which had been one of the longstanding pet projects of Bush and his band of neoconservatives. It was counterproductive in the fight against Al Qaeda because Saddam Hussein had been an enemy of Al Qaeda which immediately moved in to Iraq during the US occupation and ultimately created ISIS there. Although most Americans were initially in favor of the war (including Trump who famously made a statement in support in an interview), it soon became a quagmire that became extremely unpopular. It was still unpopular in 2016, when Trump was still using it to campaign against Jeb Bush and the Republican establishment for supporting the war. But what would Trump do in a situation like 9/11? Does anyone seriously think that Mr I’ve-got-a-bigger-nuclear-button would be more restrained?

Pence is much less rash and smarter than Trump. Pence is more interested in fighting yesterday’s culture wars than in shooting wars. (And Trump’s alt-right supporters are weirdly wanting to fight the culture wars of the 1930s!). Pence 2018.

Posted in Pence2018

#Pence2018 for conservative Christians

One of the most surprising parts of Trump fandom has been the large number of evangelical Christians who LOVE Trump. Eighty-one percent of white evangelicals voted for him. It is not surprising that social conservatives voted for Trump over Clinton, but most of Christians I know who voted for Trump did it while holding their noses. I’m surprised about the Christians who are Trump enthusiasts. Because Trump’s unethical nature is constantly causing himself trouble there is a high probability that the Republican-controlled House and Senate will not be able to ignore probable cause to replace him this year and everyone should embrace the inevitable. Regardless of what your first choice is for president, over the next three years the only option is Trump or Pence and Pence is the true Christian favorite. Trump has almost never attended Church in his adult life and although he owes his victory in large part to Christian voters, and is talking more about God nowadays, he doesn’t even know that “One Corinthians” isn’t the name of a book of the Bible. Since becoming president, Trump has only attended church services once for Easter and three obligatory political services: the inauguration, the National Cathedral’s interfaith prayer service, and the National Prayer Breakfast.

In contrast, Pence is a lifelong Christian who reads the Bible religiously. Presidential candidates like to balance their ticket with a VP nominee who will attract people to would otherwise have reservations about the candidate and Pence’s presence did a lot to reassure evangelicals, and now we can have the real thing if all Christians get behind their representatives to do their constitutional duty and bring us Pence2018.

It is only a matter of time. Trump’s political career has always been at risk of collapsing since it began, but somehow has staggered on like a zombie while the rest of us watch in horror. For example, after the Access Hollywood tape showed Trump gloating about his ability to grab women anywhere on their bodies in 2016, we almost got Pence as the Republican nominee according to The Atlantic:

It’s been reported that Pence sent Trump a letter saying he needed time to decide whether he could stay with the campaign. But in fact, according to several Republicans familiar with the situation, he wasn’t just thinking about dropping out—he was contemplating a coup.  Within hours of The Post’s bombshell, Pence made it clear to the Republican National Committee that he was ready to take Trump’s place as the party’s nominee. Such a move just four weeks before Election Day would have been unprecedented—but the situation seemed dire enough to call for radical action.

Already, Reince Priebus’s office was being flooded with panicked calls from GOP officials and donors urging the RNC chairman to get rid of Trump by whatever means necessary. One Republican senator called on the party to engage emergency protocols to nominate a new candidate. RNC lawyers huddled to explore an obscure legal mechanism by which they might force Trump off the ticket. Meanwhile, a small group of billionaires was trying to put together money for a “buyout”—even going so far as to ask a Trump associate how much money the candidate would require to walk away from the race. According to someone with knowledge of the talks, they were given an answer of $800 million. (It’s unclear whether Trump was aware of this discussion or whether the offer was actually made.) Republican donors and party leaders began buzzing about making Pence the nominee and drafting Condoleezza Rice as his running mate…

The furtive plotting, several sources told me, was not just an act of political opportunism for Pence. He was genuinely shocked by the Access Hollywood tape. …The couple was appalled by the video, however. Karen in particular was “disgusted,” says a former campaign aide. “She finds him reprehensible—just totally vile.”…

Trump proved defiant in the face of pressure from party leaders. “They thought they were going to be able to get him to drop out before the second debate,” said a former campaign aide. “Little did they know, he has no shame.”

Unfortunately being utterly shameless worked and we didn’t get Pence then. Trump didn’t think he did anything wrong and his shameless bluster was enough to convince his supporters so he remained the candidate. But imagine how much better the world would already be if we had just had the first year of President Pence. Imagine how much less cringe-worthy it would be to think about Pence giving the State of the Union address next week?

Posted in Pence2018

#Pence2018: The National Review cuts through Nunes nonsense.

Devin Nunes has proven himself to be more loyal to Trump than he is to America or even to the Republican Party. As Cristian Farias writes:

In the early months of the Trump administration, [Nunes] left no doubt that he was carrying water for the White House — holding clandestine briefings there, freelancing press conferences, and telling Sean Hannity that he was bound by “duty and obligation” to vindicate Donald Trump’s wildest fever dreams about the surveillance state.

Nunes is supposed to be in charge the House’s investigation into the Trump-Russia scandal, but instead he is using his resources to defend Trump. He said he would recuse himself from the investigation after being charged with ethical violations that were referred to his colleagues at the House Ethics Committee, but he stayed in charge and has recently produced a super secret 4-page memo that Trump’s most enthusiastic defenders are trumpeting because it supposedly exposes an anti-Trump conspiracy in the FBI. Jonah Goldberg is unimpressed with the theory that a deep state conspiracy is hiding the 4-page Nunes memo. The memo enthusiasts are claiming:

“corruption” at the FBI and hyping claims from an “informant” of a “secret society” scheming to do . . . something”… Meanwhile, this #ReleaseTheMemo campaign is obviously a PR stunt… I’m actually impressed that congressional Republicans were effective at messaging for once. I wouldn’t have predicted that it would work this well. After all, Republicans insinuating that a memo written by a Republican committee chairman in a Republican-controlled Congress during a Republican presidency is being hidden from the public by some force or entity other than the Republicans strikes me as kind of hilarious. As is the idea that all of these Republicans saw it, but no one leaked [any concrete evidence from*] it… Of course, this stunt — and so much else — will look not just absurd but dishonorable if the memo doesn’t live up to the hype. That’s why I’d caution Republican politicians from taking their cues from President Trump’s Twitter feed or the media platforms that unapologetically fuel his persecution complex.

The simplest way for all of us to avoid this kind of embarrassment would be to just go for Pence in 2018, before the Democrats get a chance to take control of a house of congress and get to take control of Nunes’ committee investigating Trump’s White House scandals. Pence2018.

*Lots of Republicans are leaking about the memo and leaking that it allegedly contains evidence of an FBI conspiracy against Trump, but they just aren’t leaking any actual evidence itself.

Posted in Pence2018

Trump “dealt his first blow to China’s economy”?

According to headlines today, Trump finally started to work on his campaign promise to crack down on Chinese imports. But he is just targeting imports of solar panels from China! Although this is an extremely important issue for the solar industry, it is such a small part of overall imports from China that I can’t find any official statistics that even tell how much it is worth. It is too small to even keep track of it as a separate category. Here is what the US imports from China and how important each category is.

Solar panels aren’t even big enough to show up. If Trump really wanted to go after China, he would go after their TV, computer, Toy, furniture, or footware industries. Solar panels? This isn’t about getting tough with China. Something else is motivating this.

Actually, Noah Smith has more:

In 2012 and 2014, the U.S. government under President Barack Obama hit the Chinese solar industry with tariffs even higher than the one just announced by Trump… The only difference is that while Obama’s tariffs were focused on China specifically, Trump’s apply to all foreign producers. U.S. solar manufacturers such as First Solar will obviously be helped by the tariffs. Asia, which manufactures most of the panels installed in the U.S., would seem to be the obvious loser:

But in the age of globalization and supply chains, things aren’t so obvious. A number of U.S. solar manufacturers, such as SolarWorld and Suniva, are foreign-owned — the majority shareholder in Suniva is Chinese. Some of the increased profits flowing to companies that make panels in the U.S. will head overseas.

So only 9% of imported solar panels are made in China and Chinese companies own some of the U.S. manufacturers who will profit from the tariff.  Some “blow to China”.

Posted in Globalization & International

#Pence2018 because Pence wouldn’t need to illegally use campaign funds to pay hush money to porn star to cover up an affair

Nor would a president Ryan nor just about any other plausible president I can think of. Let’s put this ugliness behind us as soon as possible. The Republicans who control both houses of Congress have a choice and it should be Pence in 2018 to avoid more damage to the brand. Everyone agrees Pence is more boring and a better manager. A breath of fresh air for America.

Posted in Pence2018

#Pence2018: Trump and Pence will unite the nation in 2018 because liberals and conservatives both agree that Pence is much more honorable and less dangerous.

When Trump first began as president, he was at his peak popularity. As Americans have seen him in action, he has gotten steadily less popular.

Even when Trump was elected, 60% of voters thought that he was not qualified to be president including almost 25% of the voters who supported him. Now even more Americans realize he isn’t qualified to be president.

Many Republicans voted for Trump despite believing that he is unqualified, dishonest, and/or simply dishonorable because they were even more disgusted by the Democrat, and many people who continue to support Trump are simply doing so out of loyalty to their party. This is a mistake because Trump is dragging down the Republican Party and America with it. It is time to recognize that most Americans (of both parties) would be better off if we dump Trump and get Pence (or Ryan) to be president instead. There is no doubt that either of the latter would overwhelmingly win in a 2-way special election against Trump. A more popular president would be good for his own party and good for America too because a democracy is supposed to have leaders who work for at least a majority of their citizens. Encourage your Senator and Representative to do their constitutional duty and investigate Trump’s crimes so we can replace him with Pence in 2018. Let’s see those tax returns Trump promised to show us in 2017. Pence for President 2018! And in the unlikely chance Pence gets dragged down by the criminal investigations too, then Ryan 2018! Another very solid choice that the overwhelming majority of Americans would prefer over Trump.

Posted in Pence2018

Why doesn’t Amazon police their own product reviews? Market failures in everything.

About a decade ago I started seeing a lot of fake product reviews on Amazon.com. They used to be easy to spot because sometimes a bunch of reviews in a row would have almost exactly the same comments. Or sometimes you could click on the person who left a suspicious rating and see all their other ratings which might have pretty much the same text and be either five stars or one star because they were either trying to maximize a score or lower one. I emailed Amazon about it years ago and I assumed that they would eventually do something about it, but the problem kept getting worse. It seems that Amazon finds it profitable that a large percentage of its product reviews are fraudulent. If they wanted to stop the problem, they have ample resources to dramatically curtail it. In fact, a little startup called Fakespot.com provides a valuable service testing customer ratings at Amazon for fraud. Their service isn’t perfect, but it is a lot more accurate than Amazon’s raw rating. There is also ReviewMeta.com which offers the same service, but I don’t have as much experience with it. Professional sellers who use Amazon are well aware of these issues.

You can test which reviews are more accurate for yourself. Look back at stuff you have bought in the past and now that you have a better idea of how good it is, does the value of your purchases seem more correlated with the Amazon ratings or with the FakeSpot adjusted ratings? Amazon DID try posting “verified purchase” with reviews and that seemed to help for a while, but the scammers soon just started to get “verified” by buying a product from themselves before writing fake reviews. That change generated even more profit for Amazon from the fake reviews because Amazon directly makes a commission from each fake review when the fraudulent reviewer “buys” a product and then Amazon makes more money from the hyped reviews luring naïve customers to buy more stuff from Amazon. Although meta review websites like FakeSpot can partially correct this self-inflicted market failure at Amazon, very few people use these services, and Amazon could do a much better job weeding out the fraudsters with its vast resources and richer data. This is an example where fraud is profitable for the sellers of the products and for Amazon too.

So spread the word. Check FakeSpot before trusting reviews. My next question is: will Fakespot eventually be corrupted by the fraudsters once enough customers start using Fakespot to make it profitable to bribe Fakespot?

Posted in Managerial Micro

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